Vol. 1, Iss. 11: Should The Suns Be Scared Of Anthony Davis Winning It All?
That + 5 more questions that came up for me, while watching the NBA Playoffs with a Suns outlook in mind.
It’s Been A While….
Thanks for coming back!
I told myself (and you) when I started this Newsletter, that I’d only send something to your inbox when I felt compelled to write it. And that it would hopefully be worth reading. I’ve been enjoying the NBA Playoffs, plus dealing with some things in my non-basketball life, so apologies for no new Issue for a little while. But I have one now and if this is your first time, welcome! Feel free to subscribe by hitting the button right below…..
I have some questions…..
If you are reading this, then you probably continued to watch the NBA Playoffs well after the Suns departed. For us basketball tragics, the elongated NBA season at least gave us something to fill the giant void in our lives created by the pandemic. If like me you have still been watching, then I’d hazard a guess that we likely also share two further thoughts.
Overall, the quality of play and entertainment has been better than we could have ever expected. Even if The Finals themselves were a bit of a let down. And….
Suns musings are never too far away. The high leverage games every day throughout the Playoffs, tend to get you thinking about Phoenix getting into and then performing on THAT stage.
The closer to the end we got, the more focused my thoughts became. Just like Issue 10 where I looked at the role wings were playing in the Playoffs and the Suns lineup we could see more of next year.
To that end, below are 6 questions I was left with from the last 6 teams to leave the Bubble and how they link to certain Suns situations.
The Champions - Should We Be Scared Of The Lakers Title?
Los Angeles Lakers - Anthony Davis vs Devin Booker
Does a Phoenix Suns fan like seeing the Lakers win another Championship? No. Is it a good feeling to know Anthony Davis might possibly be in our division for the next 5+ years? Definitely not. However, that isn’t what I’m potentially most scared of after seeing Davis win his first title in the Bubble.
I wonder if Devin Booker was watching. Who am I kidding? Of course he was. I’m sure he sees some of himself in Davis. Not to suggest they are similar players or quite frankly, even possess similar talents. But one comparison that is hard to deny, is their early journey in the NBA.
After both joining the NBA from Kentucky and completing their rookie campaigns as 19 year olds, Booker and Davis tread fairly similar paths on their way to max extensions.
Simply put, for the first 5 years of their careers both were thrust into being the face of underachieving franchises. Although sporting fairly similar games played, minutes, points and usage - it’s fair to say Davis has a slight edge through their first 5 seasons. But not by a hell of a lot. While Davis had three more All Star appearances to his name, neither guy had the luxury of an All Star level running mate and there’s just the one Playoff series between them. A sweep for Davis at the hands of the Warriors in 2015.
So why are the similarities so scary?
The Pelicans made the Playoffs the next season. They found some continuity with a good coach in Alvin Gentry. Davis’ teammates included Jrue Holiday, a young Buddy Hield who turned into DeMarcus Cousins, smart role players like Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore, plus the Pels took swings at guys like Julius Randle and Rajon Rondo.
And yet despite all that, Davis only lasted two further seasons in New Orleans. The same two seasons Booker is about to embark on with the Suns. After his second taste of the Playoffs, things went downhill again and the Brow strong-armed his way to the Lakers.
Now he’s an NBA Champion and you simply cannot deny that our guy Book, wouldn’t have had one eye on Davis taking matters into his own hands. A chess move that has now paid off in a big big way.
Here’s the thing - these Suns are in a position to provide a much more attractive future to Booker than New Orleans could by the end for Davis. But all that could change with a few short sighted moves aimed at reaching the post-season to appease Booker. And what if the damage has already been done?
Hopefully for our sake, we see Booker doing this to Davis for years to come…..
The Runners Up - Can We Replicate The Heat Culture?
Miami Heat - Bam Adebayo vs Deandre Ayton
You hear the term #HeatCulture bandied around a fair bit these days. Especially when the Heat make an underdog run at capturing the Larry O’Brien trophy.
But what is it?
My best guess is that it encapsulates the Heat’s infamous training program, almost flawless development reputation, and willingness to sacrifice, all into one catchy, albeit annoying tagline. And while Miami’s recent run was on the back of many #HeatCulture type characters, one guy springs to mind for me first; Bam Adebayo.
Adebayo joined Davis, Jokic, Theis, Gasol and the Zubac/Harrell combo as the last of the big man anchors left in the Playoffs. His rise to elite seemed to come just as rapidly as his leap to block that Jayson Tatum dunk in the East Finals.
Is that because of the #HeatCulture?
His role for Miami is certainly one that has come from a lot of development and sacrifice. First and foremost, he quickly became their defensive anchor protecting the paint despite standing just 6’9. A presence that was sorely missed in those Finals games he was absent from. He also acts as an offensive hub of sorts from the elbows and in hand-off actions, often resulting in baskets for others. Finally, his relentless physical play appears to come from great conditioning and a willingness to put his body on the line.
Enter - Deandre Ayton.
If you had to pick one of those last big men standing above that Ayton could closely replicate, it has to be Bam. Despite occupying different frames, the optimist in me believes Ayton can duplicate just about everything Bam brings for the Heat on the defensive end. Offensively, you cannot ignore the current difference in play-making. But it is note worthy that the Suns at least run many similar hand off actions using Ayton, as the Heat do with Bam. Then there’s the shot chart similarities in both efficiency and frequency. Especially if you cut out the non-paint shots from Ayton.
Again, sacrifice.
What it could all come down to is that C word, culture. If the Suns are building something as strong as we all like to believe they are, then Ayton’s attitude next season might be the quickest clue. This next line is going to make it sound way too simple but that’s why I get so frustrated with the big fella at times. I truly believe that if Ayton were in elite physical and mental shape, then he could have the same level of impact on the Suns that the Heat love Adebayo for.
If the mindset is to sacrifice every night for the team through defensive effort and the offensive role the team needs, and the motor is there to see it through - then look out for what Deandre Ayton could do in his all important third season next year.
Next Best In The West - Do We Already Have That Guy?
Denver Nuggets - Jerami Grant vs Kelly Oubre
When I think about the Suns one-two punch in Booker and Ayton, I think the closest comparison that exists among the top teams of the NBA is the Denver Nuggets. It’s by no means the perfect like for like on the court. But it is a shooting guard-big man combo of 25 years or younger that takes up a lot of offensive touches, much like our Suns.
What Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic achieved in these NBA Playoffs, is exactly the kind of dream run the Suns should aspire for. But as much as it was about the heroics of it’s two top guys, it was also about the Denver role players who fit around them.
Perhaps the most important of those was Jerami Grant. A soon to be Free Agent, who many Phoenix fans would like to add and has been linked to the Suns.
I can’t help but question whether the same guy is already on the Suns roster. When I think about Grant, my mind automatically goes to Kelly Oubre.
Can Kelly guard up and down his natural position, much like Jerami is able to act like a Swiss Army Knife for the Nuggets? He certainly has the similar frame to. Maybe he just also needs the similar frame of mind. Would Kelly be okay with reducing his overall usage on the offensive end and instead become more of a play-finisher? One who perhaps improves as a spot up shooting threat and continues to attack the rim? Only Kelly knows the answer to those questions.
The beauty of Grant is that he understands his role for the Nuggets. Not only that but he performed it beautifully, during the Nuggets last 19 games in the Bubble. And now he’s about to get paid handsomely for it.
It is my belief that if Kelly Oubre is to remain on the Suns, it needs to be in a role that is similar to Grant. Working off the Suns stars, while also covering for their weaknesses. If the Suns can convince Kelly to play bigger, with the ball in his hands a little less and with a real lean to the defensive end, then he’s going to get his money.
The real key will be whether Kelly himself believes that’s his best path to the next big pay day. Let’s hope he was watching the Nuggets and what Grant gets this off-season.
More defense to offense from Kelly next season, especially if it’s on Jerami Grant…..
The Young Contenders - Are These Wings That Far Apart?
Boston Celtics - Jaylen Brown vs Mikal Bridges
As I followed the Boston Celtics post-season run, there seemed to be some repetitive narratives among their fans online. Jayson Tatum is a star!, This Team is just a legit big away from being great and What’s wrong with Kemba? were three of the top four. The fourth and final one I saw a lot of - If Jaylen Brown plays well tonight, we will win.
(I’m choosing to ignore Marcus Smart’s heroics because I’m still mad at his flopping)
From the Celtics games I tuned into, they all certainly rang true. And I kept thinking about the parallels to our Suns. Tatum has become a scoring wing star with serious passing chops (*cough cough* Booker), Theis was serviceable if only a little short on talent (Ayton could learn a lot from how hard he works) and Kemba did seem off but when he got going, was a real engine for the team (Ricky Rubio anyone?).
Which then leaves Brown (again, ignoring Smart) and I kept coming back to Mikal Bridges as the Suns parallel. Are we sure they are all that different?
In so many of the games I saw, the Celtics would live and die by the ball swinging to an open Jaylen Brown and whether he was confidently knocking down his shots on that given night. The offense would also seem to stutter, based on how much Brown was being asked to create individually versus just filling the gaps as a supplementary piece.
Much like Bridges, it’s undeniable what Brown brings on the defensive end for Boston from a positional versatility standpoint. But offensively, I do wonder how much he has benefited from a larger usage on a much better team. Perhaps more importantly as Suns fans, how has Mikal’s passive play impacted what he could be capable of as soon as next season?
I’m just not convinced there’s much difference between these guys as complimentary wings on good teams. Mikal could certainly do with a bit more aggression on the offensive end, and one could argue Brown has a few extra shots he could give away.
Could we see the more prolonged return of Bubble Bridges from the scrimmage games, who averaged 18.7 point per game on 11.3 shots in just 26.8 minutes? It could go a long way to this team making another leap next season.
The defense will still always outshine the offense though, just has all the right tools…..
Defending Champs - Has The Past Skewed Our Draft View?
Toronto Raptors - Various Players vs Pick #10
The Toronto Raptors couldn’t quite defend their title this time around but that doesn’t mean the season wasn’t a success. They arguably still went further than anyone predicted they could, after losing Kawhi Leonard in Free Agency. While watching them fall one win short of the Conference Finals, it wasn’t lost on me who was picking up the slack left by Leonard.
Norman Powell, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. Not only were all four crowned NBA Champions last season, they were playing key roles for the Raptors in the 19/20 Playoff push. And what else do they have in common? They all arrived in Toronto as rookies between 2015 and 2017.
Who did the Suns draft during that same span? Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender, Davon Reed and Josh Jackson. You don’t need me to remind you how that worked out for Phoenix. But it did get me thinking - has that terrible run skewed our thoughts as fans on what is a good plan for the NBA draft?
It has become all too familiar to see fans wanting to trade away draft picks for established veterans or to only draft ready made guys. Sure it worked out last season bringing in Dario Saric and Cam Johnson, but does that make it the only route? It’s worth noting that all the previously mentioned Raptors Champions were somewhat raw or flawed prospects that took time to develop. They then became key role players on a title team before taking further leaps the following season.
So what does it all mean? I don’t think there’s any right way to approach the NBA Draft. Other than of course - draft good prospects. It’s astounding when you see the list of Suns brought in between 2015 - 2017 and compare it to Toronto. The six Raptors rookies either became NBA Champions, or in the case of Delon Wright (Marc Gasol) and Jakob Poltl (Kawhi Leonard/Danny Green) were traded for NBA Champions.
I think it’s important to not be too narrow in our thinking of what constitutes a good choice on draft night with the 10th overall pick. Especially when you consider how valuable a guy like Siakam or VanVleet would be to this Suns team right now.
Second Round Surprise - What Makes An Elite Coach?
Los Angeles Clippers - Doc Rivers vs Monty Williams
Doc Rivers was the immediate casualty of the Clippers shock second round exit, before just as quickly landing on his feet with the Sixers. Good coaches don’t stay out of work very long. Which is how we get to our leader - Monty Williams.
The two have a lot in common, including working together in the past. What I am most interested in though, is their reputations as great culture coaches. More specifically, the question of how far that can take you on it’s own and how many elite coaches can couple it with great on-court tactics?
On either side of his only other Head Coach gig in the NBA, Williams worked under Nate McMillan, Billy Donovan and Brett Brown. As a player, he worked for Pat Riley, Gregg Popovich, Mike D’Antoni, Rivers and Larry Brown.
What a list! It’s no wonder he understands how to build a good culture.
But so does Doc. All of Rivers’ work to turn the embarrassing Clippers around, to steer them through the Donald Sterling saga, to put them on the map as a perennial Playoff team. It all went out the window when a franchise feeling the pressure had a disappointing exit. Not to suggest that Doc wasn’t at fault. He had his fair share of head-scratching calls throughout the Clippers Bubble run. But that whole legacy was very quickly forgotten, when push came to shove. Spoiler Alert: he was shoved.
So, has Monty grown tactically since his Pelicans days?
The Doc situation is interesting when you consider how things ended for Williams in New Orleans. I was impressed with his on-court system this season, especially given some hesitations from his last gig. He still had some questionable coaching calls - I for one, hope he has a better game winning play next season other than the Booker corner three falling out of bounds. But when does the culture stuff wear thin and winning becomes all that matters? Luckily for us all, likely not for a little while yet in the Valley.
Things are positive for the Monty/Suns partnership right now, and so they should be. After the 8-0 finish to the season, we have every right to feel Williams was the right choice to lead the Suns through the first phase of becoming relevant again. But will he still be the right guy when it comes to the pointy end of the season? We simply have no idea.
But man, am I eager to find out.
While things can change quickly, it’s great to see that the early signs are there…..
Overtime:
It’s just over a month until the NBA Draft (Nov 18th), which will be followed by Free Agency (Currently TBD) and then hopefully the 20/21 Season (January maybe?). If there’s anything you want me to focus on during this stretched off-season, then feel free to let me know in the comments.
Some links to things I’ve taken in over the course of writing what was discussed above:
Sam Cooper’s piece on Jerami Grant.
Kellan Olson discussing Desmond Bane and Zona talking about him too.
The Suns “Break Through” Series Ep 1 on Monty Williams.
Jake Rosen on scouting the draft.
Doc Rivers episode of The Playbook on Netflix.