Vol. 1, Iss. 12: Ricky Rubio - The Renaissance Man

Rubio's impact on the 19/20 Suns tends to go a little under the radar but I also wonder if we are witnessing the start of a bigger turnaround.

Having Withdrawals Yet?

I know I definitely am. “No Suns and no other basketball make David something something.” But to stop from actually going crazy, I’ve managed to put together another Issue for you here. I’ve also set the goal of 1,000 subscribers before the next season starts. So if you are new, please help by subscribing below. If you’ve been here a while, every share on social media or suggestion to your friends still helps in a big way.

Some love for Point Jesus……

Is Ricky Rubio The Suns Renaissance Man?

Renaissance (noun) - a situation when there is new interest in something and it becomes strong and active again.

After going 8-0 in the Bubble and finishing with their most wins in 5 seasons, you’d be forgiven for getting excited about the start of the Phoenix Suns Renaissance. It has been a long few years as Sans Fans and finally we can believe that the franchise has begun to turn things around.

Phoenix wasn’t alone though this season, in reversing the downward trajectory. Their high priced free agent signing, who was voted the worst signing of the off-season, took the reigns at Point Guard in the midst of the best year of his basketball life. Ricky Rubio was hung out to dry by the Jazz and looked out of favor in wider NBA circles.

Then the Phoenix Suns came knocking.

What happened next? Rubio won the FIBA World Cup with Spain, took MVP honors in the tournament, and then went on to have his best season in the NBA. Ok, if not his best then definitely his best since age 25.

In this Issue, I want to talk about how the two resurrections are very much dependent on each other. Even though I already raved about Rubio’s impact with Booker and Ayton in Issue One of this Newsletter, I still want to make one thing extra clear. The Suns don’t achieve what they did this past season without Rubio.

Conversely, Rubio might have this crop of young Suns to thank for his own turnaround. While I look ahead and suppose what might occur going forward, I also want to remind you of how good Rubio was for the Suns core this past season at regular intervals.

Starting right now….

Mikal Bridges
It’s opening night. Ricky Rubio’s debut for the Suns, where he drops 11 dimes including this beauty. It’s an early window into the fact the Suns will go on to generate 12.9 points a game off cuts, good for 3rd best in the NBA. Last year? Just 9.7 points or 17th in the NBA. Bridges was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Rubio’s presence. Not only was he in the 88th percentile for points off cuts this season, he also shot 56.8% on passes from Rubio (81 total assists) versus 41.1% from all his other teammates (123 total assists).

Rubio hit two key milestones this October.

First, the 15th marked Rubio’s 15 year anniversary as a professional basketball player. He debuted right before his 15th birthday in Spain for DKV Joventut. That’s a lot of 15s. Which of course means, the 21st of this year was also his 30th birthday.

Naturally, both these significant achievements result in many thinking Rubio has reached the end of his peak as an NBA player. Fifteen years as a pro is a fair stint, after all. However I’m here to not only show that his most recent season in the NBA was one of his best yet, but to also question whether there is in fact much more of it to come.

Devin Booker
The Suns go 5-2 early in November, with a win at home over the Sixers. Book and Rubio combine for 61 points and 13 assists. Booker has his most efficient season in 19/20, shooting 48.9% from the field (up from 46.7%) with the first pass first PG of his career. The impact of Rubio getting Booker easy buckets (like my favorite “pitch play” below) was in stark contrast to last season. Want proof? Booker was assisted on 46% of his buckets this season, compared to just 36% last season. What’s even more ridiculous is that Rubio’s 108 assists to Booker was more than Crawford (36), Okobo (18), Melton (14), Johnson (13), Canaan (12), Evans (2) and Fredette (1) managed combined last season.

Quick Look At The Stats

To set the scene a little before projecting forward, let’s take a quick look at what the stats tell us on Rubio in 19/20.

If we take his 9 NBA seasons to date and convert everything to Per36 numbers to even things out, we can confidently say the following:

• Rubio had his 3rd best scoring season at 15.1 PPG (16.4 PPG in 18/19)

• Rubio had his equal best passing season at 10.2 APG (10.2 in 15/16)

• Rubio had his 2nd best shooting season from the field at 41.5% (41.8% in 17/18)

• Rubio had his best shooting season from deep at 36.1% (35.2% in 17/18)

• Rubio had his best season combining scoring and passing, with 40.3 PPG generated from his buckets and assists (36.21 in 18/19)

The basic counting stats suggest that Rubio may have had better peaks in certain categories earlier in his career, but that 19/20 might have been his most balanced season to date.

Better yet, the advanced stats tend to back that up. PIPM will tell you that Rubio’s +3.2 this season was third to his age 23 and 25 seasons in Minnesota. However it also suggests that Rubio had his best defensive season of his career with the Suns (+1.9), to go along with his best offensive season in over 4 seasons (+1.3).

Then there was the intangible stuff that won’t show up in the box score. Rubio was making that evident as early as the pre-season games, which you can see in the tweet below.

Seven Seconds Or Less Podcast @7SOLpod

7 Plays Or Less - Random Observations.... 1. Want to see the impact Rubio's signing has on a team desperate for leadership? Watch him get to every player on the court after a bad transition D possession, that ended in Book/Ayton bickering. The result? Highlight of the game.

Aron Baynes
Baynes was asked to start early into the season and gave the Suns a different look, with his blistering shooting from deep. As starters together, Rubio and Baynes went 11-10 in 21 games and both contributed to Phoenix’s hot start. Like in the below game against the Nets, Baynes was able to take advantage of Booker getting close attention and Rubio was able to find him. That extra space and Rubio’s ability to hit Baynes in his shooting pocket makes the world of difference. How do I know? Because Baynes hit 59 threes this season and 32 of them came from Rubio. Not only that, he shot 47.1% from deep on Rubio passes. From everybody else? Just 27%.

Kelly Oubre
Oubre’s athleticism is an underrated attribute for this team. Rubio found Kelly for 82 buckets in his 56 games during the 19/20 and 6 of those were clever Alley-Oop plays like the set play below. That doesn’t sound like a lot, nor does Oubre’s total of 11 made Oops from 16 total Alley attempts. However, if you remove Ayton (63) then 11 total is just one less attempt than the 12 coming from the other 8 regular rotation players combined this season. The Suns may need Oubre’s above the rim game and Oubre may need passers like Rubio to get him finishing opportunities too. Kelly shot 68.8% on Oops and 83.5% on Dunks, but just 43% on Layups and 39.7% on Jump Shots.

Parallels To Steve Nash

As a Suns fan, it’s hard to ignore the similarities between Rubio arriving in the desert and Nash’s second stint on the Suns. While their paths to that point were very different, both were given the keys to the offense as almost 30 year olds and both suited up in the purple and orange in their 9th season in the NBA.

Given how things went for Nash and the Suns soon after, I am going to try avoid getting too excited about the impossible feats Rubio simply cannot live up to. But I do want to make the first of two challenges in this Issue. I want to challenge the notion that we should start to expect natural decline from Ricky for the remainder of his contract.

Nash did eventually hit a wall (thankfully on the Lakers) but he was 38 years old by that point. Between 30 and 36, he averaged 77 games a season and played the best basketball of his life. Again, I am not suggesting Rubio is going to be Nash. But is it too premature to think Rubio’s best days on the court are behind him?

I think about their similarities as players, even if some other traits set them apart. Both 6’3 PGs. Both possess elite vision and passing acumen. Both without an over-reliance on athleticism. Both almost ritualistically take care of their body and mind.

Given we saw Nash’s game raise to another level with the Suns, I am hopeful the same can happen for Rubio. Particularly because of HOW he did it. The beauty of Nash was that he used his experience and vet savvy to find the perfect balance in his game during the twilight years. You could almost see him processing the numerous seasons of filed away intelligence, when on the court. It was that working on his craft, coupled with a chip on his shoulder from how things ended with Dallas, that led to his MVP seasons.

I’ll say it one last time. It’s crazy to think Rubio is about to have an MVP season like Nash. But is it crazy to think he might still have career years ahead of him? We have a fairly close precedent in our own backyard and I simply cannot ignore it.

Deandre Ayton
So about those 63 Alley-Oops from Rubio to Ayton, mentioned earlier. The below play is my favorite call from Monty all season, especially when you double it with the play that follows below. Ayton and Rubio only managed 36 games together this season, so I am excited to see what a second season might bring. Especially considering Rubio had almost 2.5 assists per game to Ayton when they did play.

It’s January 2020 and we see the same play just two days later in the very next game. Just a different result. This is the true beauty of having a lead initiator like Rubio. The Boston defense chose to play this one differently, so Rubio just waits for the counter to unfold. Now Bridges toe touches the three point line here, but just ignore that for a second. I mentioned Rubio’s passing impact on Mikal overall earlier, but what about from deep? Well, 45.2% for Bridges on passes from Rubio. From everyone else? 34%.

The Much Improved Shooting

So I want to focus on the shooting, as it’s very likely to be the biggest swing skill in terms of whether Rubio can re-invent his game well into his 30s. I know we just spoke about Steve Nash, so I’ll get it out of the way early this time - he is never going to be THAT.

Rubio did however just have his best shooting season from deep, after also looking very confident with his shot during the World Cup win. I want to focus on THAT.

The fact is, Rubio has been a subpar shooter inside the arc and around the rim his whole career and there are several more variables to decipher when it comes to those situations. So let’s stick to the easy stuff.

As a career 84% free throw shooter, many folks have wondered why Rubio can’t raise his numbers from beyond the arc. My question would be - are we starting to see it now and has it all been because of his role in the past?

With Phoenix this past season, Rubio hit a career high from three at 36.1%. That was on the back of hitting 41% of his catch and shoot opportunities and limiting his other three point shots (shooting just 20.8%) to just 0.8 per game. Rubio has seen his catch and shoot efficiency improve essentially every season since arriving in the NBA. He has also reduced his pull-up shots with the Suns, compared to recent seasons on the Jazz.

My curiosity here is the role Rubio knows he has in the backcourt with Booker. We can debate Booker versus Mitchell all day, but I am at least certain of two things.

1. Current Devin Booker is a much better on-ball player than the younger version of Mitchell that Rubio played with.

2. Rubio’s 20.4 Usage Rate with Phoenix was lower than his two recent seasons on the Jazz; 22.7 and 22.9.

With that, are we seeing Ricky understand that he is going to find himself in more off-ball situations where the Suns need him to hit an open shot? Better yet, are we starting to see the results of a few off-seasons of work? Considering Rubio already started to see this weakness exploited in the playoffs with the Jazz and it was one reason he was let go, my guess is he took it to heart and took himself to the gym.

The Suns and Rubio will have hopes of making the playoffs very soon. And given Rubio only has 11 career playoff games to his name, I’d suggest he is going to be fighting to play every minute he can when he gets back there again.

Transition
Bit of a sad video here, as this Utah game was the last time we saw Oubre for the season. So I’ll try take the edge off with yet another stat that has Rubio’s fingerprints all over it. Who lead the league in transition points per possession this season? Our Phoenix Suns with 1.2 PPP. 15th last season. So how can you credit Rubio when he only ranks 24th percentile in transition scoring on his own? Because he ranks 96th percentile when you also count assists. That’s how you lead the league, especially when you have 4 play finishers who rank in the top quarter of the league; Ayton (95th %ile), Bridges (93rd), Johnson (88th) and Oubre (75th).

Right Him Off At Your Own Peril

A common theme that tends to be discussed with Rubio, is his early start as a professional and the expectation that it will cut short his NBA career. I am here to challenge that with my second promised challenge of the Newsletter.

I am going to use the previously talked about Steve Nash to do so, as well as one of Rubio’s closest peers in terms of age and experience - Damian Lillard.

Lillard is the same age as Rubio, with one less season in the NBA. He also just had his best season ever with the Blazers and I don’t think anyone would be predicting him to fall of a cliff from here. So why do we do it with Rubio?

Well David, because Rubio started as a pro at 14 and has run up way more miles on his body. WELL, to you loyal reader (let’s be honest, if you’ve got this far then I can’t yell at you) I respectfully disagree. And here’s why:

• Steve Nash at 31 - College (4 Years) for 3,402 mins // NBA Pro (9 Years) for 18,269 mins // Playoffs for 2,295 mins // TOTAL - 23,966 mins.

• Damian Lillard at 30 - College (4 Years) for 3,363 mins // NBA Pro (8 Years) for 22,381 mins // Playoffs for 2,210 mins // TOTAL - 27,954 mins.

• Ricky Rubio at 30 - Euro Pro (6 Years) for 5,797 mins // NBA Pro (9 Years) for 17,386 mins // Playoffs for 349 mins // TOTAL - 23,532 mins.

Rubio has an almost 4,500 minute buffer on Lillard. Even if you want to count Rubio’s official tournament minutes for Spain (867) plus all the exhibition games, while totally ignoring Lillard’s national duties and high school ball - you’d still find a gap.

Rubio has had his injury concerns in the past but I think it’s unreasonable to simply put it down to old legs. I know I’m not about to predict Lillard slowing down after a career year, so I don’t think I am too confident doing the same for our Ricky.

Cam Johnson
Of all the rotation guys we are covering in this Issue, the numbers say the least when it comes to the Rubio and Cam connection. But I’m not too worried about that. After all, Rubio only had 25 assists to Cam in his rookie season. A big reason for that is we only started to see called plays for Cam later in the season, like the below in late February. I hope we see Cam more with Rubio next season, because he was a 39.3% shooter off catch & shoot situations as a rookie and an even better 42.2% when he found himself wide open.

So Now We Wait….

Phoenix (noun) - an imaginary bird that set fire to itself every 500 years and was born again, rising from its ashes.

There is no more fitting place for Rubio to enjoy the twilight of his career than Phoenix. Whilst it’s a little too soon to call a complete resurrection for both team and player, I can’t help but wonder whether the weird and wild 19/20 season will be one we look back on in years to come.

It sure feels like we have waited 500 years to be relevant again. Yet before we even achieve anything of note, I worry we have forgotten how we made this small step in the right direction. This exciting young core needed a leader, on and off the court. Ricard Rubio i Vives answered the call. I for one, don’t want to take that for granted.

If we are lucky, Rubio’s form will hold in a Suns uniform. Better yet, long may it improve well into his 30’s. If it does, I am fairly certain we will continue to see the Phoenix Suns outdo their wins tally year on year. And Rubio will continue to make all of his teammates better.

Which I will now leave you with a few more examples of, before signing off until next time….

Dario Saric
We find ourselves inside the Bubble during August to round things out. And by this point you are not going to be surprised when I tell you that Saric had his most assisted buckets from Rubio last season. You are also not going to be surprised to read that the 50% from two and 37.1% from three on Rubio passes, were slightly better percentages than on passes from everyone else. What’s even more interesting is that after Booker, Saric was also the next best facilitator to Rubio during the season. Their two man game was fun to watch in the Bubble.

Finally, I’ve highlighted Ayton already. I’ve also highlighted a number of set play calls from Monty. But I wanted to end with one last video below that included both. Especially from the Bubble, where I think Monty showed he could build on the offense they had earlier in the season. I mentioned earlier that Rubio had roughly 2.5 assists a game to Ayton. I also mentioned he had 108 assists to Booker. His most to any player. But what if he played the same amount of games with Ayton? Well, the 89 assists would actually be more like 145.

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Overtime?

I’ve probably given you enough to digest here already, so I’ll just leave you with Episodes Two and Three of the Suns “Breakthrough” series and all the Rubio assists from above again in full form in the below YouTube clip.