Vol.1, Iss.3: Is It Time To "Moreyball" Deandre Ayton?

Why this would be a wise move + some more questions after the Suns scrimmage games.

Back again?

How good is it to have NBA basketball back? Almost as good as having YOU back for issue number three. If you are a first timer, feel free to check out issue one and two for a few housekeeping hints or just for an idea of what you are getting yourself into. And of course, you can subscribe below, if you like what you see. For everyone, I will just remind you that it’s going to be a better experience if you view within a browser where you can watch the videos while reading and not get re-directed.

Heat check….

For the rest of you, I am mindful of the fact that these are only scrimmage games we have just witnessed. Also the fact that I’ve already thrown a lot at you in the first two issues. So, here’s just a few key questions through some casual observations of mine before we get into the real stuff next week.

Is It Time To “Moreyball” Deandre Ayton?

It’s possibly the most hotly debated topic among Suns fans. Would you rather Deandre Ayton started shooting threes or was more aggressive down low? What if I were to tell you, I think there’s a solution for us all.

Let’s start with three facts and one lie, shall we?

1. Deandre Ayton has played 101 NBA career games.

2. Deandre Ayton is yet to hit a three in those games.

3. Deandre Ayton has elite touch in the paint for a 7 footer.

4. I don’t want Deandre Ayton shooting the ball outside the paint.

If you are unfamiliar with the idea of “Moreyball”, you can read a deep dive on it here by Kevin O’Connor. Essentially it’s a nod to Rockets GM, Daryl Morey, who likes his team to take shots at the rim or from three, with very little in between. So what has this got to do with Deandre Ayton? Well last issue I spoke about the need to get him to the FT line more, then he went out and nailed threes against the Jazz & Celtics while having one attempt from the line in 68 minutes of play.

I began to wonder….. How can we convince Ayton to be more aggressive down low, yet still let him develop as a shooter? Then it hit me. If the big fella thinks he’s shooting the three like a middy now, then let’s just get rid of the middy.

WARNING: we are going to do some math…..

• Over 101 games, Ayton shoots 65.6% inside 10ft on 9.18 shots a game. So not even counting fouls, he generates 12.04 of a possible 18.36 points on those shots.

• Over 101 games, Ayton shoots 38.8% outside 10ft on 3.96 shots a game. So not counting threes or fouls, he generates 3.07 of a possible 7.92 points on those shots.

• We are going to take those 3.96 shots from outside 10ft and redistribute them.

• Firstly, I want 2 extra shots a game inside 10ft which on current averages are going to generate a further 2.62 points of the 3.07 we need to make up.

• Then as a reward to DA, I’m going to give him the extra 1.96 shots a game (basically 2) to make it rain from deep. Here’s the thing, I only need him to make up 0.45 points to match what he’s done in his first 101 NBA games.

You know how many of those threes Ayton would have to hit in his next 100 games to break even? 8%. That’s right. EIGHT PERCENT. And that’s not even taking FTs into account, which will at least have a chance to increase with the extra shots in the paint.

It’s time Suns, you can hit two shots with one rock.

Now that you’ve digested all that, here’s dessert. Ayton’s touch on show in the scrimmage games & an illustration of the shots I’d be telling him to take.

Will Mikal Bridges’ Best Defense Be His Offense?

Last week I went out of my way to highlight Mikal Bridges on the defensive end and the assignments he’s got coming up in the bubble games. This week, he shows out on offense during three scrimmage games and makes me look like a complete fool.

Or maybe they can still be connected? Hear me out….

A passive Bridges allows the wing he is trying to stop on the other end, the luxury of taking a break every other possession to conserve energy. Even worse, it allows star guards that Bridges is tasked with defending, to be “hidden” on Bridges on the other side of the ball for the same reasons. If Mikal stays this aggressive, then he’s going to punish any opponent looking to take a break on the defensive end. In my mind that could prove more beneficial than any physical tool or defensive skill that Bridges possesses (of which there are MANY), over the course of a 48 minute match-up.

Some numbers for you now, with the caveat of Small Sample Size and Toronto Game Really Skewing the Numbers Alert:

• Per 36 in 19/20 so far, 8.3 FGAs on 51.6% - 11.5 PPG.

• Per 36 in scrimmages, 15.2 FGAs on 61.8% - 25.1 PPG.

• Per 36 in 19/20 so far, 2.1 FTAs.

• Per 36 in scrimmages, 3.1 FTAs.

• Per 36 in 19/20 so far, 3.2 3PAs on 35.2%

• Per 36 in scrimmages, 5.8 3PAs on 53.8%

Let’s take a look at the kind of aggressive offense from the scrimmages, that I hope is here to stay…..

Is Cam Payne the best Pick & Roll backup we have for now?

I’ll admit, I thought Cam Payne was really good in Game One and average in Game Two/Three. All in all, he exceeded my expectations which were no higher than Dario Saric’s vertical. Sorry, that was just an excuse to mention Dario who didn’t fit into this issue but looked promising in one and a half scrimmage games. Back to Cam.

If we focus purely on the next 8 games and accept that the bench is still going to have some issues, Payne might be the best option the Suns have to stay afloat while the starters get some rest. Why? I think he showed in the scrimmages, that although he has some deficiencies like all the other backup guards, he does handle the Pick & Roll better than his peers.

Can the Suns get enough out of 10-15 minutes of 2-man game between Cam and the likes of Frank Kaminsky? Honestly, it might be the difference between winning and losing a couple of bubble games.

Payne did show that he hasn’t lost the ability to create a shot for himself or hit the roll man, and even surprised me a little bit with some moves to the rim that he was much less adept at in previous NBA stints so far. Clips below.

Will Ty Jerome Ever Look Like An NBA Player?

Let me preface this by saying that I am not quite at the level of digging my heels in when fans gave up on Mikal, requesting to buy all their unwanted stock. In fact, I remember doing a draft night podcast where I expressed my biggest concern for Tigerome in the NBA was his athleticism. And that’s exactly what is playing out so far.

BUT.

I will say that if Jerome is to have any chance to look like an NBA player soon, then Phoenix need to put him in better situations. That situation is not 3-guard lineups, with 2 other subpar play-makers. I’m also not convinced, that much like happened with Mikal previously, that Ty isn’t just a few made shots away from fans starting to come around. He was 7 for 22 in the scrimmage games, and specifically 2 for 13 from deep. Trust me, he’s a better shooter than that.

Let me use some college clips, along with some scrimmage highlights, to outline why the Suns need to run him off the ball a bit more. Jerome noted recently that he’d worked on his core strength & shooting during the break. Running him off screens can help his shooting AND his play-making.

What’s With The Dice Shake Monty?

I may have spotted another play-call versus Utah but the set was blown up by a Jazz zone. Having said that, it looks like the start of a weave action which we saw a bit more of during these scrimmage games.

Coach Igor used to call this the “blender” for what it does to the defense. Maybe Monty likes the “dice shake” instead? I’ll let you decide.

And Finally, Why Do You Subscribe Again?

Hopefully cause I can keep getting lucky enough to hit on a few videos like I have from Issue Two to Three. Specifically, you might remember last issue when I highlighted Rubio’s Secret Tail Signal at the end of your read. Well, in the Suns final scrimmage game against Toronto - Rubio busted it out again and it was like watching a replay.

If this is your first time, the little tail signal Rubio gives to Ayton is to tell him to trail on the play because Ricky is going to put the jets on to penetrate the paint.

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Overtime?

I had a subscriber ask me this week if I’d consider doing a Zoom chat during a bubble game, which I thought was an interesting idea. Looking at the schedule, the best opportunity for me would be the Miami Heat game on Saturday the 8th @ 430pm Arizona time. That’s 930am on Sunday the 9th for me.

If you’d be interested in watching the game together and just shooting the shit, I can look at setting something up. Feel free to leave a comment below or DM me on Twitter. I’m not expecting an avalanche of responses but if I get a few then I’d be happy to jump on.

Also, ICYMI - this ridiculous Suns/Australia crossover story Kris Hanson alerted me to.