Vol. 1, Iss. 4: How Booker Got His Moment + Spotlighting Bubble Cam & More.

How the team delivered Booker his moment, Cam Johnson being the underrated story of the Bubble so far + what Ayton needs to work on & a shout-out for Monty Williams.

Taking Stock…

Time for the Fourth Issue already? If this is your first time, thanks for joining. I’d encourage you to check out Issues One, Two & Three - as I’m pretty proud of a lot of the content in those that remains relevant or has come to fruition in Orlando. There’s also some helpful housekeeping tips in those Issues too. If you like what you see, mash that subscribe button below.

For all you returning readers, thanks for the continued support. Let’s get stuck into it shall we?

Shazam!

How about them Suns? At the time of writing this Issue, the Phoenix Suns are 3-0 in the bubble and therefore 29-39 on the wild ride that is the 19/20 season. The Playoff hopes are still alive and I don’t think any Suns fan can honestly say it hasn’t been entertaining, albeit nerve-wracking, thus far. An ugly win over WAS (125-112), a crazy comeback versus DAL (117-115) and the buzzer beating defeat of LAC (117-115), has provided us with the full bubble roller-coaster experience for Week One.

But as I sifted through all the clips I’d taken from the first three games, one guy continued to standout - Cameron Johnson. After being inserted into the starting lineup…..ahhhh who am I kidding? You came here to re-live the most recent Clippers win and I’d be silly to bury it. I’ll be honest, I had plans for this Issue. But that cold blooded bad man Devin Booker, just went out and snatched them away from me just like he did LAC. We can get back to Cam.

For now, and to save on too many more words, let’s jump straight to the tape and answer the question - How did the whole team deliver down the stretch for Devin Booker to have his moment?

Can We Tag Cam Back In Now?

As I was saying…..as I sifted through all the clips I’d taken from the first three games, one guy continued to standout - Cameron Johnson. After being inserted into the starting lineup in Orlando, Cam has certainly embraced the opportunity. He is averaging a whopping 34.1 minutes in the bubble, up from 20.1 as a reserve, and after foul trouble in the first game he led the team in minutes for Games two & three. To me that says the Suns really value his presence on the floor, even during a poor shooting night versus LAC.

Yet, with that extra workload he still boasts similar Per36 numbers as a starter for Phoenix (including a February game against LAL) over as a reserve:

• Starter (4 games): 13.6 PPG on 47.2%, 6.4 RPG, 3.5 APG, 0.6 TO & 1.4 SPG.

• Reserve (48 games): 14.4 PPG on 41.8%, 5.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 TO & 1.0 SPG.

There is of course, some small sample size theater going on here and fairly large fluctuations game to game. But in the sample we do have, I think we can at least suggest that not only does Cam potentially compliment the other starters but they also elevate facets of his game also.

While I’ve tried to highlight previously what I thought of Cam pre/post Suns debut and have included LOTS of links below for context. I thought we could take another look, through the lens of the last three games. Not only to illustrate just how valuable his strengths are for this version of the Suns being assembled, but also some of the more unheralded parts of his game that suggest he’s perhaps not as one dimensional as many thought him to be.

Bubble Cam - Spotlighting The Space

I don’t think I need to show you what I thought of Johnson as a shooter pre-draft or convince you of how he has fared so far as a rookie. We all know it, the man can shoot.

But for context sake, Johnson’s rookie season so far puts him in the company of Steph Curry, Rudy Fernandez, Damon Stoudamire, Buddy Hield and Landry Shamet as first year players with at least 4.5 3PAs a game at over 39% efficiency.

Take it to the Per36 numbers I always bang on about with Cam and things get really interesting. The select group I mentioned in Issue Two of guys that can shoot 40% on 8 attempts per game includes the likes of Danilo Gallinari, JJ Redick, Duncan Robinson, Paul George, Damian Lillard and Davis Bertans. AKA the NBA’s cream of the crop shooters. So why give Cam the green light to try join them? Well the list of rookies to ever hit the same 40% on 8 attempts mark when adjusted to Per36, is one good reason. Cause Cam could be the list. That’s right, just him all on his own. All time.

"You can tell people what it's like to go to Antarctica and how cold it is but until they go they really don't know." - Monty Williams via Kellan Olson.

This was Monty on Cam Johnson just the other day. A perfect description of what we are watching in these bubble games, as Cam learns how to be an NBA starter. Not just any NBA starter, but one that really compliments the young Phoenix core.

When your offense runs on the trio of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Ricky Rubio, then a reliable shooter is a great asset to have. As of right now and per Synergy - Cam Johnson ranks in the NBA as an excellent spot up shooter (84th %ile), very good jump shooter (82%ile), excellent jump shooter under 4 secs on the shot clock (93rd %ile) and very good in catch & shoot situations (74th %ile).

How’s that looked in the last three games? Let’s take a peek…….

Bubble Cam - Focus On Defense

The main knocks on Johnson as a draft prospect were that he was not all that athletic, had some injury concerns and was unlikely to improve much due to age. From a defensive standpoint there were question marks over how he’d keep up with more explosive wings if he guarded down a position or how he’d battle with brute bigs if he tried to guard up.

My pre-draft thought was that there way maybe some competency there, which I tried to highlight with sequences against other soon-to-be NBA talent.

To that, the rigidness he showed in college does seem to have been a little overstated. Perhaps the latest hip surgery he underwent really was corrective after all. Johnson suggested it was to take his game to another level, rather than being any major red flag, and I’ve gotta say he looks fairly fluid to me. Monty seems to agree.

"[He] certainly helps spacing, certainly helps defensive versatility...but the most important thing is Cam is growing." - Monty Williams via Gerald Bourguet

I don’t think Monty is insinuating the 24 year old Johnson is growing in height. Science tends to push back on such a theory. But although many would argue just as strongly that 24 year olds can’t grow their games either, the science is far more dubious on that.

Early on in his rookie season, it was clear to me that while Cam may never be an impactful defender in the NBA, he was at least willing to compete. He moved his feet well, was in the right spot the majority of the time and showed strength when it was needed. Effort goes a long way towards defense in the NBA and Cam was often holding his own in 1 v 1 matchups. More importantly, I was confident that his understanding of the game could see Cam be able to successfully operate within a team D construct and rarely get targeted on that end.

In the games as a starter in Orlando, he’s showed the same willingness to compete and has had some nice sequences against the likes of Rui Hachimura, Luka Doncic, Lou Williams and Kawhi Leonard.

The below video is all unedited sequences with no graphics or voice-overs. So with that in mind, I just want to highlight a few of the plays to watch out for:

• 1st Clip - watch Cam tag Ayton’s main in transition before immediately switching to Hachimura when the pass is made. Quick processing.

• 3rd Clip - Cam cuts off the baseline on the big and the small, before switching fully onto the guard and forcing the tough contested three.

• 6th Clip - switches onto Doncic, good chase to contest, then good fight over screen/ball denial to send Pick & Roll initiation quite high.

• 11th/12th Clips - knows where his help D is and knows if he’s going to get beat, that’s the way to go.

Bubble Cam - Keeping An Eye On The Rest

Being labelled as a one dimensional shooter means the other facets of your game tend to go unnoticed by the wider NBA audience, while perhaps being touted too highly by Suns fans. Or maybe that’s just me who thinks there’s more here than meets the eye.

Rebounding - Moving into the first unit as the pseudo 4-man, means a greater responsibility on the glass for a team that already struggled with rebounding. On the defensive glass, Cam’s shown good positioning and box out technique. One thing to watch though, will be if Johnson’s offensive rebound numbers remain down as a starter. I’ve noted previously that he loved to sneak in for offensive rebounds, both in college and earlier in the season, and he actually grades as excellent this season (83rd %ile) for points off offensive rebounds. However my concern is with far less perimeter opponents and greater defensive responsibility, this secret skill might get lost in translation.

Passing - Outside of the increased efficiency, Cam’s assist numbers as a starter are the biggest beneficiary. He will never be seen as a high level playmaker or someone who throws flashy dimes, but his decisiveness to move the ball is something that flourishes with the Suns starters. If the ball isn’t going up after hitting Cam’s hands, he makes snap decisions to put it on the floor or keep it moving. Don’t be surprised to see Johnson rack up 3 or 4 assists on a nightly basis for this reason alone.

All-Round Scoring - Johnson showed in college that there’s more to his scoring profile, by putting up 26 points against Duke without a single made three. The gravity he possesses allows him to take advantage through cuts, curls and by attacking close outs with midrange shots or even little runners. Another Small Sample Size Alert but Cam grades as excellent this season on runners, with 11 points on 10 possessions. Excellent touch. I don’t want him taking less threes (more, more, more) but it looks like time with the starters gives him more space to do other things too.

In Transition - Cam is a smooth mover in the open court. Smoother than he really gets credit for, to be honest. He’s shown all season that he is willing to push the ball in transition rather than deferring to a guard and can generally be trusted to make the right pass too. When he doesn’t pass, it’s often even better. Grading out in the 86th %ile when it comes to points in transition.

Don’t just take my word for it all though, here’s some snippets from the last three games to showcase what I’m talking about…

If Cam can maintain his starting position for the remainder of the bubble, we could well have a surprise entrant into the biggest story of the bubble sweepstakes. Going into Orlando we wondered whether Oubre would take the court, if Mikal would make a real leap, could Ayton be counted on or will Booker go on a scoring streak? All I am saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back in a weeks time and decide that Johnson found the camera and his fair share of the spotlight.

Deandre Ayton - Cleaning Up The Mistakes

You could definitely accuse me of burying this topic in this Issue to protect myself and you’d be somewhat right. Honestly, I knew that only the diehard readers would get this far and I also wanted it to take a slot in the newsletter that was worthy of it’s urgency.

Deandre Ayton has shown over 100+ games now that he’ll be able to put up 20 & 10 on a regular basis. His defense is also much improved. I’m very happy with how his progress is tracking from a development standpoint. But as Suns fans, if we ever want him to be truly elite then it will take improved mental focus and a desire to do the little things too. Stars show up on time, most of the time. Superstars are the true kings of being punctual.

Below are some lowlights from the last three games that I think help highlight what I am talking about.

It’s Definitely 52.

I wanted to include this to end for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I wanted to create an opportunity to give Monty Williams a shout-out for how he’s prepared the team in Orlando. More importantly, I’ve included the below for closure to the question raised in Issue One surrounding the “52” signal. It is “52”. In fact, it’s “Elbow 52” indicating it’s a set from their various Horns actions. And I’d also go as far as suggesting the “52” refers to it being a play for the 5 (aka C) and 2 (aka SG).

Watch Monty give the signal, to which Booker actually runs a counter due to his defender going under the screen. For the set itself as originally designed, you can head back to the First Issue.

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Overtime….

As mentioned last week, I am going to watch the Miami Heat game live and I have setup a Zoom link for you to join me. I had a few of you folks register interest, so I thought #WhyNot?

Goes without saying but this is just meant to be a fun discussion for subscribers of this newsletter only. So I am going to ask that anyone interested DM on Twitter for the link or if you aren’t on Twitter, then comment below and I’ll make sure to get it to you.

PHX vs MIA:
Saturday 8th August @ 4:30pm - Arizona Time
Sunday 9th August @ 9:30am - Melbourne Time

If you want to read more on Cam Johnson - Zach Milner of The Stepien had the pre-draft piece on Cam Johnson, Kellan Olson of Arizona Sports beat me to the punch earlier this week, as did Gerald Bourguet with this one.