Vol.1, Iss.2: Losing Won't Burst My Bubble

Wins aren't everything in Orlando. At least for me. Rather than pinning my hopes to an unlikely 8-0 run, here's what else I'm looking for.

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Check Ball……

Recently I’ve come around to the idea of the Suns playing 8 more games in the Orlando Bubble. I still reserve the right to get #MadOnline if Devin Booker injures himself significantly in what is a meaningless game in terms of playoff chances for season 2019/20. But does that mean there’s no meaning to find at all?

I preached all season that this revamped Suns franchise, lead by Monty & James, was looking to rebuild the culture in Phoenix. So it would be hypocritical of me to not see some value in what the team can do with 8 final games. In fact, in many ways it might actually present a better path for the Phoenix Suns to end the season on a high. The grind of the regular season had already come at several costs for this team and hitting the reset button to come back largely at full strength, sure sounds better than the ol’ grind of the last 10 games in March/April us Suns fans are used to.

However, I still stop short of getting all amped up at the possibility of an 8-0 run and a chance at the playoffs. Kill me for it all you want, I don’t care. Losing a game or two isn’t going to leave me in tears like a 5 year old, who just had his balloon popped by Uncle Pete at his birthday party. You know him, we all had an Uncle Pete. I’m instead going to focus on the experience as a whole.

So, I set out this week to watch 6 of the Suns best victories on the season and got much more than I bargained for. Not only did I end up down a rabbit hole of finding all of Deandre Ayton’s shooting fouls in 19/20 but I also came away with a bunch of things I’m looking for in Orlando. Plus of course, more X’s & O’s tidbits to share with ya’ll.

Let’s go to the tape shall we?

Ayton Of Free Throws

@ BOS (18.01.20) 123 - 119 // No Kelly Oubre or Cam Johnson

I see your “Ayton-0” play on words and raise you an “Ayton-Of FTs”. I don’t want to say too much here, cause I say more than enough in the video. But put simply, Deandre Ayton needs to get to the line more. How can Monty and the team help him get to the lofty heights of the 11 FTAs against Boston?

There are various play types and things Ayton can do included in the video below. But before that, I’d just suggest much more Pick & Roll and better Post touches.

Comparing his two NBA seasons thus far, Synergy ranks Ayton as a “Good” plus improved Pick & Roll partner (1.115ppp vs 1.162ppp). Yet that play being run for him went down this season (21.1% vs 19.4%). That’s crazy considering the difference in playmakers each season. It’s also crazy that they’ve turned his “Very Good” rating in the post from 1.029ppp to “Below Average” with just .808ppp this season, with those same play initiators. That’s on Ayton and the team as a whole.

Finally, where has he rated “Excellent” thus far? Offensive rebounds and in transition.

SOUND ON for this one. About 4 mins of the video is breaking down how Ayton can draw more contact, with the remainder just every other shooting foul he drew this season. Why? Because if I clip them then you may as well have them. So you can watch the final 2:30 minutes for the 33% of fouls Ayton draws purely off offensive boards and direct lobs, or you can just take my word for it.

Post, Post, Give.

v HOU (07.02.20) 127 - 91 // Valley Boyz Starting 5, No Baynes or Saric

Another way to increase Ayton’s effectiveness in the post, is to give him more space to operate and opportunities to assist others. Quite frankly, I think his ability to read defenses is better than the 1.6 assists in college and 1.8 assists in the pros suggests.

Too often we saw an Ayton post up lead to a poor shot or retreat pass out to the perimeter. The starting lineup with Rubio, Bridges, Oubre and Booker gives Ayton a bit more space to operate and also more space for others to take advantage of his attention. I hope the Suns give him more post ups in Orlando, but if others work off him then every third touch should be an assist.

Starting with the Houston game, let’s take a quick look at Ayton’s ability to hit cutters through the paint for easy scores.

Cut To Cam Johnson

v LAC (26.10.19) 130 - 122 // No Ricky Rubio or Deandre Ayton

Cam Johnson hit his first NBA 3 in this game vs the Clippers and it couldn’t have come in a better way. All season I had to convert his numbers to Per36 to see how he was stacking up as a possible volume 3pt shooter. I’d like to see that removed in Orlando.

Let’s get his minutes up from 20.3 per game, so his 8.3 3PA’s per 36 can become a reality. Which by the way, if his 39.7% effeciency held, there would only be 6 guys in the NBA more reliable from deep on that volume.

I’m reluctant to call it “Hammering The Nail” as there is already a Hammer Play around the league. But it’s what the Suns have been doing with Cam. Using Cam’s first ever NBA 3, we can highlight how smart Bridges cutting leads to open Suns 3’s. When a third defender helps in a Pick & Roll situation by dropping to the FT line (the Nail), Bridges makes a diagonal cut to the paint. This generally causes confusion for defenders on who should help for who and often leaves someone wide open. The third Pelicans clip is the best illustration of this below.

Mikal Bridges Vs. The World

@ DAL (28.01.20) 133 - 104 // Valley Boyz Starting 5, No Baynes or Cam Johnson

Mikal Bridges is the Suns best defender. Illustrated in this victory over Dallas, as the primary defender on Luka Doncic. He is Top 20 in the NBA for steals & deflections and takes all kinds of matchups for Phoenix. Honestly, they could do with three of him. He’s likely the best point of attack defender the Suns have, the best wing defender on the team, and I’m still not convinced his best role isn’t as a free safety causing chaos on the backline.

Bring all the smoke for Mikal in Orlando. The Suns are due to face Luka twice, Kawhi/George, Victor Oladipo, Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul and Ben Simmons. What better way for him to announce himself to the world?

Starting with that Dallas game, I wanted to talk you through some defensive highlights from all 6 games I watched this week. SOUND ON for this one.

Booker To Drop The Elbow

v PHI (04.11.19) 114 - 109 // No Deandre Ayton

The win over the Sixers was the second most points (40) Booker scored in a dub this season. He also did it in just 32 minutes without Ayton. As he dunked home the ball in the video below, I couldn’t help but think about the Suns scoring record again. Walter Davis with 15,666 points. The Orlando seeding games count towards NBA stats, which I find really weird but won’t argue cause it helps a running bet I have with myself. Can Devin Booker become the Suns all-time leading scorer before his current contract ends?

Currently he has 7,439 points. Would you be surprised if he goes for 30PPG over 8 games in Orlando and ends the year with 7,679? That leaves a gap of 7,987 to make up over 4 more seasons. That’s 24.3PPG if Booker plays every game. It’s more like 29PPG if he plays the 68 games a season he’s averaged so far in his career.

Anyway, I digress. Below I wanted to point out a play the Suns call “Elbow” and that I coined the “Pitch Play” throughout the season.

We actually start with the HOU game where you faintly see Rubio signal and call the play, before going to the PHI dunk I referenced earlier. The Rockets switch, so Rubio goes solo instead. Usually, the first objective is for the PF to pitch the ball back to Rubio who then finds Booker cutting from the corner.

Kelly And The Gang

@ UTA (24.02.20) 131 - 111 // Deandre Ayton foul trouble

Okay, hear me out. If Kelly Oubre ends up taking the court in Orlando, it should be as a lower usage “Stretch 4” in the starting unit. Not only will this be good for his body, it will also be good for the development of the team. With the hope that Ayton and Bridges take on expanded roles, plus the likes of Cam Johnson getting more shots, you’d hope to decrease his 22.4 Usage% that ranks third on the team.

Now the fact that he shoots the three better of the dribble than in catch & shoot situations (37.9% vs 34.4%) and is a below league average finisher at the rim (56%), might have you thinking I’m crazy. But my theory is that he needs more plays drawn up for him on a lower usage, rather than free wheeling at a high clip. The fact he wants to dunk on everyone doesn’t help his % at the rim, as he has 51 blocks against inside 5ft this season. As for the deep ball, I’m confident that if he worked on catch & shoot like he did his pull up game (which he would have had a chance to with injury) then the numbers would improve.

So what does this look like? Well we can start with the Utah game, which reminded me of the open looks Oubre got from Rubio on very well crafted misdirection plays.

1. Fake Booker off a cross screen.

2. Double cross screen where Oubre doubles back off Ayton screen.

3. Oubre gets the seal on a fake cross screen where his man tries to leave space.

4. Oubre gets the seal on a “Fist” misdirection for Booker.

Notice the positioning of the two Suns bigs at opposite mid posts in every play.

One To Watch For - Tail For The Trail

The last little video I wanted to throw in for this issue, wasn’t from watching the six games above but rather when I went through all of Ayton’s shooting fouls. I was reminded of a signal I’d seen from Ricky Rubio a few times throughout the season.

Check out the video below for the sneaky tail signal Rubio gives to Ayton. From what I’ve seen on numerous occasions, this is telling Ayton to trail on the play rather than go take position inside the paint. Rubio then takes off to challenge his man off the dribble. With Ayton trailing Rubio might drive to score with no help defense or as he does in this clip, keep the dribble alive through the paint (a la Steve Nash) and find Ayton on the mismatch.

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Overtime?

Still in lock-down here in Melbourne, so I’ve been keeping myself busy in week two. With NBA basketball drawing closer, I’m reserving this OT purely for basketball related things I’ve done or enjoyed in the past week:

Me on Pods - I joined The Timeline guys for a mailbag & Evan on Locked On Suns.
Others on Pods - New The Put Back from Suns Twitter nice guy, Gerald Bourguet. Watched - The latest episode from Matisse Thybulle’s Welcome To The Bubble series.
Read - If you were wondering why I didn’t cover Mikal’s shot in Orlando, it was cause Kellan Olson already did it much better here.

What basketball pods, articles or other things have you been into recently? Feel free to drop them in the comments for us all.