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How sustainable is it to expect Ayton to play as well as he did yesterday

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Great Q! Personally, I think it's very sustainable because he didn't do anything out of the ordinary. In many ways, he played the perfect game in terms of being a star in his role. All his points came from offensive boards and finishing plays. And his defense was great. The main thing to point out here imo, is that his stats might not be sustainable but that's okay. If the Lakers defense adjusts, then he may have leaner nights in terms of shots/points. In many ways Game 1 was a product of the Suns taking what the Lakers gave them. Best to look at DA's defense and effort as the key indicators of his play, rather than the box score.

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What is the biggest area in which the Suns can improve and how do you expect the Lakers to adjust?

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The biggest shock for me after watching again not live, was that we really didn't play that well outside of DB and DA. Paul wasn't himself, Mikal missed some bunnies, Payne looked timid and Jae was 0/7 from three. If even half of those get back to reg season form, you can argue the Suns have a lot of their own internal improvement to make. Maybe that just covers over DB and DA not being supernova every night BUT if it's in addition to instead then look out!

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Where was Torrey Craig? He only got 3mins.

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I said pre-series that it was hard to see Johnson AND Craig get big mins. With Cam looking so good, I wonder if Monty just decided this might not be a series for Craig. They need everyone to be a legit shooting threat, think that might be the reason. He will get a chance at some stage though, I am sure.

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AD has history being disengaged in certain playoff games and that's what it looked like in game 1. How much do you attribute his poor performance to checking out mentally vs the collective defensive effort of the Suns?

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50/50? There is no doubt he looked a little disengaged but as I spoke about quite a bit on the pod, I am not really sure he wants to get real dirty right now. And couple that with LBJ maybe being a bit underdone too, they don't have anyone to pick up the slack. Defensive effort from the Suns definitely can't be undersold either. Thought Crowder did a v good job of forcing AD out further than he likes etc.

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What's your biggest fear for game 2 other than Paul not being fully healthy?

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Honestly - LA going to AD at the 5 in the starting lineup and catching Suns off guard. I am sure they know it's coming but if it maybe comes earlier than they expected, it could throw them a bit.

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We can all agree the Lakers played poorly no matter for the reasoning. I think many would argue their defensive game plan was extremely vanilla and not well thought out. They will make changes.

All that said, Mikal and CP weren’t effective on offense. What defensive coverage changes are you predicting the Lakers make and how do you see Mikal and a hopefully healthy CP play into that counter?

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If we assume Paul is healthy(ish) then I'd expect the Lakers to be more aggressive in their traps on Booker and overall switching scheme. This is going to place more pressure on the Suns role players, including Mikal but also DA. Rather than just finish off plays, they might be placed in more situations where they have to create. If CP is healthy, then this scheme is a lot harder cause the Suns will have another elite playmaker to fall back on. If he isn't, then the challenge becomes MUCH greater.

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Game 1 was the Ayton Game (+ Book), I would expect CP to win us a game as well. Where do you think the other 2 wins we need are most likely to come from, Mikal & Jae, Book or the Bench?

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author

Interesting way to look at it. That version of Book can easily win us 1 more. And the bench gained a reputation of winning us games all season, so I can definitely see them getting a collective W for the team.

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The playoffs are all about adjustments, what adjustments do you see the Lakers making against us?

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The obvious one is AD at the 5. Personnel wise I don't actually think they have a lot else they can do cause the options are thin. But that one looms large and I just hope we can get to 2-0 before it comes. I like our chances of needing 2 from the next 5 after that.

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If you could add any non-starter from a non-playoff team to this roster just for this series, who are you adding?

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sheesh that's a curve ball! Backup big is obviously the slot everyone is most concerned about, so my mind naturally goes there. Even though I am sure there's someone else who would lift the overall talent base much higher. A guy like Naz Reid would make me feel a bit less anxious about any Ayton foul trouble tbh.

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Really glad I listen to the pod you and Max did ahead of the game, your comments on putting AD in the action and forcing him to fight through physicality on both ends really proved prescient. How much do you think do you think we can continue to throw him off kilter with physicality. Also, what can we do to get Mikal going on offense?

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Just need to do more of the same with AD. I was really encouraged with how they attacked him on D. At worst, it is going to wear on him a little and take him away from the rim. Not too worried about Mikal tbh. He has a big job in defending LeBron and it's only going to get harder. A lot of the time the offense will be designed to stay away from who LBJ is guarding too cause he can be so dangerous. As long as Mikal takes open looks, I'm not concerned.

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Do you think we’ll see any minutes with Craig or Kaminsky at the 5? Dario stayed afloat during his minutes game one but I wonder how sustainable that will be.

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If Kaminsky is seeing time, something will have gone very wrong for the Suns. I guess it likely means Dario has been unplayable, at which point I'd rather just see if Ayton can go the rest of the way in that game or Craig comes in the next game for reserve mins. I do think you can bet that either foul trouble or bad Dario, will result in some Craig at the 5 at least once this series.

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Do you think Mikal and Jae will bounce back and have better games later in the series? I feel like we really need them on the offensive end, but I think their legs might be worn out from guarding AD and Bron all game.

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I'm looking for very little from either of them offensively tbh. They have big jobs on D as is. Offensively, we just need them to space the floor and take open looks when they have them. I trust them both enough as shooters, to convert at a decent overall clip too.

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Thanks for doing this David. What is the Lakers next move, other than more AD at the 5?

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I don't think they have another starting 5 or major rotation change in them after that tbh. So that leaves scheme. I'll be looking for them to really ramp up the playoff basketball style in the next few games. i.e start trying to attack guys in PnR both ways and seek out certain matchups.

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If you’re like me, you’re kind of just waiting for LeBron to turn on the jets and motivate the rest of the Lakers to actually show up.

What needs to happen for the Suns to try and neutralize the “LeBron effect” moving forward?

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I am like you but I also have this nagging feeling that he may just not do it. It's fairly clear to me that he's just not healthy and I'm not convinced that changes with such a jammed schedule. I was worried from play-in to game 1, he might have got the time he needed. But he looked the same as the play-in, which is....not himself. Either way, keep making him a jump shooter as much as possible and like I said on the pod - see if you can make him a scorer and stay home on everyone else.

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God Forbid CPs still hampered similarly to how he was in game 1, would you expect the rotation to lean towards more Payne minutes OR go with more Book, 3 wings, and Ayton? Or do you think with CPs IQ/toughness they’d still put him out there 35+minutes?

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As long as CP says he is good, they are going to play him. He can still run the offense in spurts, even though a lack of shooting will really hurt. In the event they have to go a whole game without him, my gut says Monty would want Payne to start and then how much solo Book they go with will depend on how Payne is going

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If the Suns lose game 2, in 1-word, what is the reason?

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LeBron.

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Yup. I kinda think more likely to be "Davis" though. Pick your poison.

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We have all heard the rumblings from Lakers’ circles that Davis was disengaged and low effort in Game 1, that he has had similar quiet performances last year in the Bubble, and then bounced back big. I’m of the mind that at least some of his struggles were forced by Ayton particularly.

That being said, how much do you think any of the following factors could affect Davis’ ability to bounce back with a big 35+ point type game in Game 2:

1. The Lakers starting Davis at the 5, and playing him there almost exclusively.

2. The Suns running doubles and traps at him early and often.

3. The Suns dropping into a zone.

My thoughts are that the Lakers playing Davis at the 5 has significant ramifications for both teams. First, it allows Ayton to match him. I think that is our best match-up against him, but it also vastly increases Ayton’s foul trouble risk. A double-edged sword. Second, it limits the Lakers’ ability to collapse the offensive glass, but I think that is actually a benefit for the Lakers. They got a fair amount of offensive rebounds (Drummond), at the expense of space for Davis and LeBron and Schroeder to operate. Third, and most importantly, if Davis plays all the 5 minutes, the Suns cannot target Drummond if the Lakers decide to switch pick and roll (which I suspect they may incorporate into their defensive coverage, given how badly they got burned by trapping).

The Lakers’ shooters don’t scare me as much as allowing Davis to hit his rhythm. Doubling him hard has a logic to it, but I think the greater concern is opening up Schroeder and especially LeBron to attack second side actions with late rotating defense. Doubles will mitigate Ayton’s foul risk, so I think the Suns should run them (but perhaps mainly when LeBron sits).

The zone seemed to work well in Game 1, and may be a decent option if we are having foul trouble and/or containing penetration (and none of the wings on LA are knocking down threes.

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The biggest and most impactful variable is Davis playing at the 5. Without it, he quite frankly has to have a well above average shooting night. If that happens, I live with it. With him at the 5, he is going to get much better looks/become a lot harder to guard.

In terms of how to then guard him, I am more of a "I gotta see it first" kind of person. I don't put a great deal of thought into things I haven't seen much of yet tbh.

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Do you think it was already expected pre-game that Booker was gonna be around 45 minutes or it had more to do with CP3 going down? Do you foresee Booker doing 45 plus for the long run now? Is it sustainable?

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Good Q. I think Book playing 45 was because CP3 left when he wouldn't normally and also Payne got ejected. Having said that, I think his totals are going to continue to be higher than I originally thought. The sweet spot is like between 38-40

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Excellent discussion below. I will add to it the following: what is your prediction about game 2? Would be curious to get your perspective on how you think teams approach it and who comes out on top. Thank you!

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Very hard to predict given all the variables. How close to healthy is CP3? Will Davis start at the 5 or play more mins there? Does LeBron look healthier? Not to duck the Q, but it's a really hard one to predict. I will say this though, it's very close to MUST win for the Suns. If the series goes to 1-1, I'll be a lot less confident in it ending with a Suns series win. They need to end it as quick as possible. It won't be the end of the world BUT if they can get the first 2, then I really like their chances of getting 2 more out of 5. Look for a short rotation and the Suns to go all out for this one.

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I like the answer, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Every game is a must-win against the Lakers and I hope our guys play like it again tonight.

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I know AD at the 5 comes with much better off/def ratings for the Lakers, but I feel like defensively the Suns can still match up well. Esp if LeBron and AD are still playing tentatively due to health. And on D, to your point, if AD is the only big, he’ll really want to just float in the paint to block shots and the Suns can run actions to make him uncomfortable or at least exert energy.

I also agree the Suns should play super aggressive in this one and go for the win. They’ve got their legs under them and have no reason to hold back. Bridges/Booker/Ayton should play 37-40 min each.

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founding

How do the Suns combat a switch everything defensive scheme? (Especially if the Lakers decide to stop trying to double Booker and play straight up)

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That’s where it becomes real Playoff basketball! They should just mismatch hunt at that point and with Book/Paul I’d be fairly confident they continue to make the right decisions. Let’s say AD is at the 5 and they are switching everything. You’ll end up with Ayton on KCP, so lobs possibly open up and the Lakers are prone to giving up offensive boards if Book takes AD on. On top of that, you’ll just see Book call up guys he wants. We saw that a bit with him rejecting Ayton screens a bit to avoid bigs. He can basically find the guy he wants to take on the most and call that Suns play into the screen.

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How worried are you about big Marc Gasoline minutes to suck Ayton out of the paint?

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Getting LA to adjust first is a mini win. But I’d be lying if I said Gasol doesn’t concern me a little. He’s by far their best option at the 5 (other than Davis) and it does create a look that the Suns/Ayton have struggled with a bit. I’d probably give Ayton a go first, but don’t be surprised if the Suns go with Ayton on AD and Crowder on Gasol as their adjustment.

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Do you think Suns will stick with Saric or throw Craig in as the backup C against Gasol?

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Can the bunnies that Mikal missed be attributed to having no legs because he's on Lebron or just nervousness on his part?

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Yeah I wondered about this tbh. I don’t really expect Mikal to be nervous but I also doubt it was legs. Keen to see if it continues, otherwise I tend to think it was just a bit of an outlier event.

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So, a lot of the Suns being great hinges on Booker's playmaking. It was on point in the bubble, pretty good during the season but not where we would love, and he DESTROYED the Lakers game 1. Do we think he can just flip a switch with this shit or was it just thriving in this game with how it went and how the Lakers couldn't stop him at all?

Also am I crazy for not hating the idea of us making Davis into 2019 Brook Lopez on switches? I know he's technically very mobile but...they did it to Bam during the season and Cam Payne did score on him in isolation at the rim.

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You are right that Booker wasn’t quite elite during the season but I was never really concerned. I saw a lot of him feeling out the game with CP and working out what works best. It’s not quite a switch but he knows when he has to go that mode. And we might need it even more if CP is less than 100%. He’s gonna have some turnovers but you just have to live with those.

Being selective with AD is the key. I’ve covered this a lot in the last week but I think you can attack him right now. He doesn’t want to play D. But still, I’d “attack” him with actions that makes him read and react etc. If you just drive at him time after time, he’ll come out on top overall.

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founding

How would you divide minutes up between a non-shooting CP3 (assuming he's basically as effective as he was in G1) and Cam Payne?

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I’m not behind closed doors to know what’s going on but I’m giving CP3 one more game (especially with Payne looking shaky)to see what he can do before making any real adjustments tbh. Therefore, I’d go with the full stagger & Cam Payne playing next to both. So if Book is around 40 and Chris 35, that will leave Payne at around 20 which seems right.

One small adjustment we might see that I haven’t mentioned yet - maybe Paul becomes the guy who flashes to the FT line when Book is doubled. Instead of a wing. Even Paul with one arm is super dangerous from that spot and could be a triple threat from that spot on the floor.

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