Vol. 1, Iss. 14: What About Chris Paul?
On the doorstep of the NBA Draft & Free Agency, we get news of a possible CP3 trade for the Suns. So how would that change their entire off-season plans?
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Ahhhh, I forgot Option #4……
If you haven’t got to it yet, I’d go back and read Issue 13. There’s going to be a lot of references to it and various assumptions that you know what I am talking about in this one.
If you have read it, then ahhhhh I think I may have accidentally left out the fourth & final option.
#4 - Trading For Chris Paul
I’ll start out by saying I am doing this now because if it does happen anytime soon, I’m not going to have time to react to it (moving house) and frame how the rest of the off-season could go. And I want to be able to do that.
Next, let’s address what might get it done. Technically the Suns can make it happen without losing Kelly Oubre, but it’s so close to impossible that I’m just not going to entertain the idea at this point. Remember those pesky roster charges we learnt about last Issue? Yeah, see below.
So for the purposes of the rest of the Newsletter, we are going to assume Oubre and Ricky Rubio are going to OKC in any deal. Remember the salary matching rules we also learnt about last Issue? Well, with the 125% + $100k rule applied to Paul’s salary - we only need to send a touch over $33mil to the Thunder.
What do Oubre + Rubio earn combined? $31,375,000.
With a small contract added (bye Ty Jerome, we hardly knew ye) the Suns could meet the salary matching requirements to take on Paul.
Why is that important?
Because it means whether they go the ‘under the cap’ or the ‘over the cap’ route, they can still add a number of significant free agents to the team to cover for the loss of Rubio and Oubre.
Now I am going to make another BIG assumption here that might make me look like a fool. Especially given our owner’s history. However, I don’t see the point in trading for Chris Paul if you aren’t also going to do everything else you can to build out the roster.
If the Suns were to execute this trade on Draft Night or anytime before Free Agency, then they’d basically lose the $8.3mil difference between what they are sending out and what they are taking back. That’s wasted cap space they could spend.
Therefore, below we are essentially going to look at all 3 Options from the last Newsletter but through the lens that any CP3 trade is getting done afterwards!
Option 1: Clearing Cap Space + CP3
We start with the same 8 man roster as last Issue but with one key difference - we keep the #10 pick to draft a PG to learn behind Paul. This means our cap space drops from $22mil to just under $19mil (minus draft pick cap hold but plus roster charge). But with the excitement around the CP3 acquisition, we are going to target the same FA’s and hope they are willing to trade some dollars for dubs.
So after drafting Kira Lewis Jnr, the Suns approach Davis Bertans and Justin Holiday again. This time with a slightly smaller purse to split. Let’s say Bertans trims to $12mil and Holiday to $7mil, in exchange for playing with The Point God.
Langston Galloway still signs for the Room Exception and Nerlens Noel is really convinced at the Veteran Minimum now, to play with Paul again. Mike Muscala still joins, but this time he and Lecque are just thrown into the OKC/PHX blockbuster.
Of course Cam Payne and Jevon Carter want to come back on the minimum now but with the loss of Jerome and Oubre, the Suns also have two more spots to fill via a similar contract. This is where you might be able to attract some real vets you weren’t able to before. With depth needed at either forward spot, are Patrick Patterson and Solomon Hill out of the question?
Total Salary Bill - $128,748,301
Option 2: Before The Wheeling & Dealing
Under our next remix for Option 2, the wheeling and dealing comes at the end rather than the beginning. That means that after still drafting Devin Vassell, PHX steer away from Spencer Dinwiddie. Not only that, the Suns decide to go for another veteran at PF instead of Christian Wood.
But without the cap-saving trade from last time around, the Suns currently only have approximately $7.3mil to spend before the CP3 trade.
We want Danilo Gallinari.
He wants to come because he wants to win, but he also likes money. So in order to at least compete with the MLE other teams are offering, we are going to agree to a deal with Dario Saric early. We just need to turn his $10.4mil cap hold into a starting salary closer to $8mil and we have more than the MLE to offer Gallo. Winner winner.
E’Twaun Moore still comes for the Room Exception. As does Kyle O’Quinn on the cheap. We have two open slots again compared to last time but shooting wings are the priority with how this roster is taking shape. Marco Belinelli and Jordan McRae anyone?
Total Salary Bill - $126,983,248
Option 3: Running It Back, But Not Really.
Finally, we are running it back again to stay over the cap before taking a sharp turn to Chris Paulville. While this won’t quite have the same continuity as before, it is still a method with serious validity.
It gives the Suns a veteran team to chase the NBA Playoffs with, but maybe even more importantly this time around - more assets to make more trades!
The Suns make the same draft night trade with NOLA to land Josh Hart and Desmond Bane. They also bring Aron Baynes, Saric and Carter on 1+1 deals. We just need their collective first year salary to be under $18mil to duck the tax, in the end.
DJ Augustin can’t wait to accept the MLE to play behind Paul and all of a sudden the Suns have just two more roster spots to fill once again. Now remember last time we mentioned the BAE that we didn’t end up using? Well, maybe this scenario calls for Phoenix to chase a vet with a little more than the minimum.
Could you get Mo Harkless on a one year rehabilitation deal to bring some experience behind Bridges and Bane on the wing? Would be nice.
Before executing the final trade, the Suns could go back to Patterson for the final roster spot.
Total Salary Bill - $132,625,179
Final Thoughts?
I’m not going to react to the deal itself or what Chris Paul could do for this team. There will be plenty of time for that IF it gets over the line and WHEN we know what the actual deal looks like.
But a few days ago, it seemed as though the majority weren’t too thrilled at the idea versus trying to land a third guard.
Maybe opinions will change once fans can picture what else the team might be able to add to the roster, in addition to trading for Paul?
All I will say for now is that my current feelings are a mix between how I felt in Issue 8 and the overall point of Issue 7.
I wondered back then if Jeff Bower would panic trade for his first ever draftee in Chris Paul. If he does, I feel even stronger about Robert Sarver needing to empty his pockets.
Trading for Paul might be somewhat of a panic move but one that can be supported with smart financial decisions around it. Yes, his salary is gigantic but it is only two years. The beauty of that is that it signals to their franchise player, Devin Booker, that the team is willing to help him win right now. And hopefully willing to spend.
If things don’t quite go to plan, then the Suns should still have another chance to re-tool around the young core while Booker is still on his current contract. Booker would still have two years after Paul expires. Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges would be in Year 1 of their possible extensions. And the Suns would have either CP3s expiring contract to trade or a decent amount of cap space, to find the next missing piece. I don’t think that can be underestimated when looking at what should be viewed as a very calculated risk by the Phoenix Suns.
OT?
I’ve got nothing this soon, to be honest. Perhaps just a couple of pods I listened to yesterday, that reacted to the breaking news and were good listens.
Empire Of The Suns w/ Kellan Olson & Kevin Zimmerman.
The Timeline w/ Mike Vigil & Sam Cooper.
CP3 and Payne + Kira/Terry is a no-brainer over Rubio/Dinwiddie.