Vol. 1, Iss. 8: Predicting The Power Of Jeff Bower

The Suns front office mystery man might like remaining behind the scenes, but how much is he calling the shots? We might find out this offseason.

Before We Get To Jeff….

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Time to get the crystal ball out……

Let’s go back to April 2019. A place in time where the current Phoenix Suns front office was solidified and the overall vision of how to build the team was re-directed. At least in my opinion.

I have a theory of sorts. We haven’t placed enough emphasis on Jeff Bower’s influence on the Suns. He’s lurked mainly in the shadows and for this reason we’ve made a lot of assumptions about James Jones, that may actually be already true of Bower.

Now let’s go specifically to Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter timeline and scroll through until now. We are looking for any Woj Bombs with a Phoenix flavor.

April 11, 2019 - Jeff Bower announced as Senior VP of Basketball Operations for the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns hire Jeff Bower, former GM in New Orleans and Detroit, to join their front office and work in partnership with the relatively green GM James Jones.

April 22, 2019 - The Phoenix Suns have fired Head Coach, Igor Kokoskov.

Phoenix conduct an internal review and after just one season of a three year deal, they decide to part ways with Coach Igor. The only FO staff member in that review who was not also involved in the hiring of Kokoskov, is Jeff Bower.

May 4, 2019 - Monty Williams is finalizing a deal to become the next Head Coach of the Phoenix Suns.

Monty Williams chooses the Suns over other potential suitors such as the Lakers and signs a five year commitment to the Valley. His last stint as a Head Coach in the NBA was with the New Orleans Pelicans, where he was hired in 2010 by Jeff Bower.

June 21, 2019 - The Phoenix Suns trade back to the 11th Pick and select Cam Johnson in the 2019 NBA Draft.

A surprise pick by the Suns, taking the 6’8 wing from UNC in the lottery. Shortly after the pick is announced, it is reported that Cam Johnson was recruited by Marist College back in 2013 before ultimately choosing Pitt and then transferring to UNC. The coach of Marist at the time? Jeff Bower.

June 21, 2019 - The Phoenix Suns trade back into the 2019 NBA Draft, select Ty Jerome and also receive Aron Baynes from the Boston Celtics in the deal.

The Suns use a future Milwaukee pick to trade back into the draft and select Ty Jerome. Details begin to emerge that Aron Baynes has been included in the deal from Boston and despite initial reports suggesting otherwise, it is confirmed Baynes will report to Phoenix. Before Boston, Baynes was in Detroit where he signed a deal with GM Jeff Bower.

February 4, 2020 - The Detroit Pistons reportedly discuss sending Luke Kennard to the Phoenix Suns for a package involving a first round draft pick.

Fast forward to the trade deadline this past season and the Suns are rumored by Woj to be close to a deal for Kennard. The deal falls over, presumably due to a disagreement on pick protections. Kennard stays in Detroit for now, where he was drafted in 2017 by then GM of the Pistons….you guessed it….Jeff Bower.

I’m sure you are picking up on the trend by now.

Bower has had quite an interesting first season with the Suns, but it doesn’t stop there and it may well continue into this offseason. Before we move on, I want to take you back a few years and to Woj’s rival at the time but now ESPN teammate; Marc Stein.

January 21, 2017 - The Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons discussed swapping Ricky Rubio and Reggie Jackson for each other.

At the time, the Pistons appeared to be going nowhere after their commitment to Jackson and were looking for a new Point Guard to take the reigns. Interestingly, Bower tries for Ricky Rubio. He doesn’t get his man in 2017 but Rubio becomes the Suns first Free Agent signing with Bower overseeing operations.

February 18, 2017 - The Detroit Pistons looked at trading Reggie Jackson for DJ Augustin and Jeff Green.

Not only did Bower float Jackson for Rubio, a month later he reportedly looked to trade him for DJ Augustin to solidify his Point Guard spot. Bower was familiar with Augustin already, as he was one of his first signings as GM in Detroit before ironically trading him for Reggie Jackson. More on that in just a second.

If you are still with me by this point, my guess is that you are willing to go on a little journey below. With Bower appearing to have a fairly significant role in a short span so far - and consistently going back to his Well Of Familiarity - then theoretically we should be able to telegraph what he might do next.

Let’s take a look at the three headed monster that is the NBA Offseason and see if we can’t at least predict one right move for the Phoenix Suns.

Free Agency - Requests For The DJ

So this is where we get back to DJ Augustin.

Going back to Issue 7, you will remember I flagged what my preferences would be in terms of the Suns salary cap situation. In that, I mentioned the need for a backup guard (tick), who can be afforded with the MLE (tick) and has 7+ years in the NBA (tick). Here’s some snippets of DJ recently in the Bubble, to illustrate why he’s a top target of mine.

Not only does Augustin tick all those boxes, he also has a short history with Jeff Bower and Monty Williams. As mentioned above, Augustin found his way from Bower’s Pistons to Monty’s Thunder back in 2015. But what’s the on court appeal of prioritizing a guy like Augustin in Free Agency?

How about the possibility of competent PG play for 48 minutes every night over the course of a grueling 82 game season? Not to mention, Augustin would be in the top tier when it comes to backup Point Guards who are able to spot start should Ricky Rubio miss any time. We saw last season how much the team missed Rubio when he was unavailable or unhealthy, and we saw in the Bubble with a hot Cam Payne what solid PG play all game can do for the team.

Here is how Ricky Rubio and DJ Augustin stack up last year on a Per36 basis:

And now over their entire careers in the NBA:

Finally, a couple more pro-Augustin stats worth ending on. Only 8 players this season on a Per36 basis had at least 15 points, over 6.5 assists, under 3.1 turnovers and averaged over 4 FTAs per game; Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyrie Irving, Jeff Teague, Ricky Rubio and DJ Augustin. Better yet, Augustin featured in 7 of the 12 Magic 5-man lineups with a positive point differential, 4 of the Top 6 4-man Magic lineups and 2 of the Top 4 3-man lineups.

He may not be a flashy FA signing for the Suns, but I’d guarantee he’d make us better.

What about a few other names to watch in Free Agency in order of preference?

Darren Collison - remember him? If he decided to return to the NBA, the 33 year old point guard would be a great backup option for Phoenix. Not only were the Suns linked to him last offseason, Bower also drafted him back in 2009 and ended up being his Head Coach that year.

Langston Galloway - a combo guard with a history in Detroit with Bower, as a Free Agent signing in 2017. Galloway could be a decent backup guard option, who would be in his 7th season next year and likely fit inside any of the Suns Salary Exceptions.

Avery Bradley - another combo guard who would likely be affordable, albeit a little more expensive than Galloway. Bower traded for Bradley in 2017 and if he opts out of his Player Option, would bring 9 seasons of experience to the Suns.

Ersan Ilyasova - a backup big with a non-guaranteed deal next season with the Bucks. If he became available, Bower might look at him again for more veteran experience after trading for him back in 2016.

Anthony Tolliver - there’s a real chance Tolliver isn’t even in the league next season. But if he is, I wouldn’t rule out an end of the bench role with the Suns. Bower traded for Tolliver from the Suns in 2014 and also signed him again in 2017.

Reggie Jackson - although Jackson ticks a need as a potential backup guard with over 7 seasons experience, I wouldn’t be thrilled with him in Phoenix. He’s likely to be the most expensive option and also the hardest to keep happy.

The Draft - Looking For Clues

Full disclosure: I haven’t done as much draft research as usual. With the likely date continuing to get pushed back, I won’t rule out that I catch up to some degree. Even still, there’s going to be better voices to listen to if you are looking for overall rankings. So instead, I’m going to give you three names; Devin Vassell, Desmond Bane & Grant Riller.

I watched 9 College games, so you didn’t have to. A quick taste of all 3 guys below.

With the Phoenix Suns only having the 10th pick in the 2020 Draft, you’d be right to question why these three should be grouped together at all. There are two main reasons for this.

1. I’ve recently changed my NBA Draft philosophy a little, when it comes to the Suns. Rather than scout guys projected to go around the time of their choice, I’ve moved to finding guys who just make sense. Regardless of where they are ranked. Too much can change and as we know, this front office is unpredictable.

2. Don’t forget this is a newsletter about Jeff Bower, so let’s keep exploring his history with point one in mind.

There’s something else you need to know about Bower. He started in the NBA as an Advanced Scout, before being Director of Scouting and then General Manager. As GM (including the Suns choices last season), Bower has had 20 total draft picks. Of those, 13 have been in the first round and 7 inside the Top 15. But there’s some other numbers that are much more interesting. They suggest that what fans have already decided about James Jones, might actually be all to do with Bower.

Let’s scan through the data…..

• Four year College players taken 7 times, followed by Sophomores (6), Juniors (4) and Freshmen (2). An international player taken just once.

• When it comes to the first round it’s Seniors (4), Sophomores (4), Juniors (3) & Freshmen (2).

• Inside the Top 15 it switches, with Sophomores (4), Seniors (2) & Freshmen (1).

• As for Colleges drafted from, every pick other than the international player is from six top conferences. ACC (6), PAC 12 (4), Big East (3), Big 12 (2), Big TEN (2) & the SEC (2).

• In the first round it becomes ACC (5), PAC 12 (3), Big East (2), Big 12 (2) & Big TEN (1).

• Finally, with a Top 15 pick it becomes ACC (4), Big East (1), PAC 12 (1) & Big 12 (1).

So how do we take all that and end with the trio of recommended players?

If the Suns stay at Pick 10, the data suggests that Bower would typically go with the upside of a younger player but steer clear of Freshmen. And to be honest that might be best for Phoenix, as the only “One & Done” guys drafted by Bower in almost 20 years are Stanley Johnson and Henry Ellenson. So whilst that rules out quite a lot of talented youngsters in this draft, it does point to Devin Vassell. Especially coming from the ACC.

Should the Suns look to trade back a little in the first round as many have suggested, that’s where things get interesting. Bower tends to lean older later in the draft and his history with drafting Seniors in Round 1 is decent. Cam Johnson, Hilton Armstrong, Darren Collison & Quincy Pondexter. There aren’t a heap of Juniors and Seniors projected in the first round, which makes the search a little easier. Desmond Bane ticks the Big 12 box and looks like a guy that could help the Suns right away. I believe he also met with the Suns last year before withdrawing from the draft. Oh, and Seth Cohen is his agent. He only has one other NBA player on his books right now - Cameron Jordan Johnson. Interesting.

Finally, how can I work my guy Grant Riller into the conversation? History is not kind to the combo guard, when it comes to Jeff Bower. While he played four years of College ball, it was for a small school in the unheralded CAA Conference. You have to go back to 2003, when Bower was Director of Scouting for the Hornets, to find a link to a guy drafted from outside the Top Six Conferences. That guy was David West. And while Xavier is a bigger school than Charleston, it possibly suggests that Bower will go against his own grain if there is four years of consistent improvement. Grant Riller certainly has a case with that.

Trade Tips - Rating On The Panic Meter

We’ve covered what Bower and the Suns might look to do in Free Agency and the NBA Draft based on the past, but what about trades they might look for in the future? Whether it’s now or down the line, there are a handful of names around the league to watch out for in more ways than one.

How would I feel about a trade for any of these guys? How are they linked to Bower? What would the trade have to look like this offseason? And where should it rank in terms of panic with the front office should it occur? Let’s answer all those questions below……

Luke Kennard (DET) - 24 Years Old - 3 Years In NBA - $5.2Mil (1 Year)
Last Season - 28 Games - 15.8 PPG / 4.1 APG / 3.5 RPG / 44.2 FG% / 39.9 3P%

Don’t be surprised if the Suns try to re-visit this trade in the offseason. I was a big supporter of adding Kennard at the deadline and would remain so at the right price. If you haven’t picked up on it by now, my highest priority for the 20/21 season is having the best three guard lineup absolutely possible. It has been suggested to me that the original deal fell over due to long term health concerns. So in terms of where this sits on the panic meter, it really comes down to the cost. Should a guy like Vassell be off the board by the 10th pick, I could see it happening using that asset.

Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN) - 27 Years Old - 6 Years In NBA - $23.7Mil (2 Years)
Last Season - 64 Games - 20.6 PPG / 6.8 APG / 3.5 RPG / 41.5 FG% / 30.8 3P%

Yes Jeff Bower drafted Dinwiddie in ‘14, but he also traded him away two years later for Cam Bairstow after a lacklustre start in the NBA. I therefore wouldn’t be relying on a great relationship to bring this one home, but there’s a chance Bower might want to make amends. After all, Dinwiddie as the third guard would have the potential to be even better than the Kennard addition. For that reason though, it would also cost you more. Could they trade him into cap space using draft picks or would they look to trade Oubre instead? Hard to see the Nets liking either option to be honest.

Chris Paul (OKC) - 35 Years Old - 15 Years In NBA - $85.5Mil (2 Years)
Last Season - 70 Games - 17.6 PPG / 6.7 APG / 5.0 RPG / 48.9 FG% / 36.5 3P%

Twelve months ago this option would have been undoubtedly last on the list, in terms of panic buying. But Bower’s first big draft hit from ‘05 had a resurgent season with the Thunder, while the remaining two guys had seasons to forget. It was once thought OKC would have to pay any team to take Paul. But especially because of the Suns salary situation, any trade would likely need to include Rubio and Oubre. That’s a lot for a 35 year old PG with $85.5Million left on his contract. The upside would be a serious shot at the Playoffs next season without killing your cap sheet for years to come.

Tobias Harris (PHI) - 28 Years Old - 9 Years In NBA - $147.1Mil (4 Years)
Last Season - 72 Games - 19.6 PPG / 3.2 APG / 6.9 RPG / 47.1 FG% / 36.7 3P%

Jeff Bower made a great trade to get Harris from the Magic for Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings, before flipping him in the Blake Griffin trade two years later. Phoenix would be his sixth NBA team in 10 seasons if anything eventuated, which is never a great sign when making such a long term commitment. Again the money dictates that Phoenix would need to send back a lot, including Kelly Oubre. If you are okay with that, I’d suggest you go compare Harris’ numbers vs Oubre last season. Maybe the Suns could leverage a desperate Sixers into offering more just to take him. Even then, I don’t like it.

Blake Griffin (DET) - 31 Years Old - 10 Years In NBA - $75.7Mil (2 Years)
Last Season - 18 Games - 15.5 PPG / 3.3 APG / 4.7 RPG / 35.2 FG% / 24.3 3P%

No. Nope. Nah. No thank you. Griffin is one of my favorite non-Suns of the last ten or so years. Prime Blake, or even like one season ago Blake, would be a perfect fit on this team. His improved long range shooting and forever underrated passing game, would fit so well with this young core. But there’s basically a less than 10% chance he ever gets close to that again. The knee injuries have killed off any semblance of old Blake ever coming back. Bower desperately traded for him last stint with the Pistons, in a huge panic move that backfired. Doing it again would be considerably worse.

Final Thoughts

Jeff Bower using his existing connections to benefit the Suns, has worked out relatively well so far. Especially considering the team was in desperate need of restoring its reputation around the league. One could argue that every good move by the Suns in the last 18 months has a direct link to Bower or Monty; hiring Williams as coach, trading back for Johnson, adding Baynes to another trade, signing Rubio and even Cam Payne.

The idea around the hire made a lot of sense at the time. James Jones was very new to his role and Bower could serve as a great mentor, while Jones got his legs underneath him. Even better for Bower, he could do it while taking a back seat and not having to front up as a face of the franchise.

But while we like to think of him as a quiet mysterious figure, this offseason might prove he’s actually quite the opposite. If history is anything to go by, something mentioned in this newsletter might end up becoming true very soon. More importantly though, a correct prediction would also signal that Bower wields a lot more power in the front office than we previously realized.

Whether that’s a good or bad thing longer term, history suggests it might be somewhere in between. Bower has been able to get his past teams to the NBA Playoffs but not with any real sustained success.

The prior connections are bound to run out fairly soon. If the Suns continue to rely on Bower going back to his own personal well, then it’s likely to get old real fast. That’s where you would hope Jones is able to capitalize on his own reputation in the NBA, to go with a storied franchise back on the rise. For now, we wait to see if together they can take another small step this offseason.

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Overtime?

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