Fun read! I definitely have noticed that Bower seems to have a connection to most of the Suns moves and have been good for the most part. not a huge fan of the list of guys connected to him for this off season, although I can totally understand it.
Suns might just be looking for depth and to more or less run it back, I can see where DJ Augustin would fit right into this category. A move like that probably means they have bought into Cam Payne's ability to perform and getting DJ is hedging on that bet. Honestly I hope they try and get a better guard than DJ as he has been a really bad shooter inside the arc in the playoffs, but if he at least gets you to the playoffs and is a "just in case" option for Payne, it makes sense.
The article discusses some of the successful picks and acquisitions (or just players familiar to him that are good) that Bower made in order to predict how he might draft in the future. What about looking at the players (specifically player types) he drafted/acquired that didn’t work out to see what types of player he might seek to avoid? Just looking at his drafts, he whiffed on:
1. A defensive center with awful playmaking and no shooting range and very little actual playing time even though he was at UCONN for four years (Hilton Armstrong at 10th in 2006).
2. A big wing who can defend but with zero shooting traits and poor shooting peripherals (Julian Wright at 13th in 2007)
3. A well-rounded, albeit limited at playmaking, jack of all trades wing without any elite/near-elite offensive traits (Stan Johnson 8th in 2015)
4. A non-shooting, non-playmaking big that was more of a bully-ball college player (Ellenson 18th in 2016)
Cam Johnson is like the antithesis of Julian Wright, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bower look at another player that is elite at shooting like Nesmith. His best team, the Paul-led Hornets had TONS of shooters around the focal point. I would be surprised in some ways if he took Vassell, because he’s kind of like a better shooting Stan Johnson (not making plays much at all) and he’s not elite at it nor does he have high volume. I realize BBIQ is a thing, so it’s not like they’re the same. Bower didn’t draft Mikal.
If Bower picks a big, I would expect him to target someone like West as opposed to Ellenson or Armstrong. Someone that can actually pass and shoot. Think Obi over Precious (of course Obi is prob long gone by 10, but that’s the thought process I would think Bower might use).
I mentioned Stanley Johnson and Ellenson, exactly for this reason. I have the full list of Bower picks but chose not to include it as it was getting long as is. Also wanted to stick to years and conferences, rather than start to talk prototypes as that is far more subjective
Fair enough. It’s not easy to draw meaningful conclusions from a small sample. I would still have Nesmith over Vassell on the Bower Board, especially after seeing how Cam fit with Booker’s perimeter gravity and Ayton’s rim gravity. Watching guys like Duncan Robinson on DHO and movement shooting unlock so much space for Heat penetration and Bam rim runs; it’s easy to see Nesmith filling that role for Phoenix.
In the end, we are all just speculating. Lots of folks I trust don’t think Nesmith is close to what Cam was though. Vassell is just as good as a shoot with a lot more imo.
Thank you for engaging. I’ve also heard a bunch of draft folks knocking Nesmith, and I’m not sure I get it. Although it is redolent of much of the Cam criticism last year.
Specifically, I think Nesmith was both a better pure and more diverse shooter than Cam at two and a half years younger. He was better at spot-ups and catch and shoot. He was also better at pull-ups, even though he’s *only* a 79%tile shooter on pull-ups. Cam was 14/38 on pull-ups as an old senior. His release isn’t quite as pristine, but he has a similar standing reach with his + wingspan.
When you say “Vassell is just as good as a shooter” are you referring to Nesmith? Nesmith crushes Vassell on every shooting metric (including pull-ups). Nesmith beats even Cam on volume; Vassell’s volume which highly predicts NBA shooting success, was not good. AN had a 68.5% TS as a volume scorer: that’s...unusual.
I haven’t seen enough of Nesmith to comment on him specifically. Made that fairly clear in the newsletter. The reference I made was to folks I trust saying that Cam was capable of doing a lot more than Nesmith outside of shooting.
In Vassell, I trust his shot based off the film I’ve watched. And I think his upside as an all around player, especially on defensive end is tremendous.
I do plan on watching more Nesmith though. Purely because I didn’t agree with a lot of draft evaluations on cam at the time either. So I’d like to decide for myself.
Great read as always David. Picturing DJ Augustine on the suns gets me excited. Imagining a whole season of good PG play makes me salivate
Fun read! I definitely have noticed that Bower seems to have a connection to most of the Suns moves and have been good for the most part. not a huge fan of the list of guys connected to him for this off season, although I can totally understand it.
Suns might just be looking for depth and to more or less run it back, I can see where DJ Augustin would fit right into this category. A move like that probably means they have bought into Cam Payne's ability to perform and getting DJ is hedging on that bet. Honestly I hope they try and get a better guard than DJ as he has been a really bad shooter inside the arc in the playoffs, but if he at least gets you to the playoffs and is a "just in case" option for Payne, it makes sense.
thanks for the entertainment David!
The article discusses some of the successful picks and acquisitions (or just players familiar to him that are good) that Bower made in order to predict how he might draft in the future. What about looking at the players (specifically player types) he drafted/acquired that didn’t work out to see what types of player he might seek to avoid? Just looking at his drafts, he whiffed on:
1. A defensive center with awful playmaking and no shooting range and very little actual playing time even though he was at UCONN for four years (Hilton Armstrong at 10th in 2006).
2. A big wing who can defend but with zero shooting traits and poor shooting peripherals (Julian Wright at 13th in 2007)
3. A well-rounded, albeit limited at playmaking, jack of all trades wing without any elite/near-elite offensive traits (Stan Johnson 8th in 2015)
4. A non-shooting, non-playmaking big that was more of a bully-ball college player (Ellenson 18th in 2016)
Cam Johnson is like the antithesis of Julian Wright, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bower look at another player that is elite at shooting like Nesmith. His best team, the Paul-led Hornets had TONS of shooters around the focal point. I would be surprised in some ways if he took Vassell, because he’s kind of like a better shooting Stan Johnson (not making plays much at all) and he’s not elite at it nor does he have high volume. I realize BBIQ is a thing, so it’s not like they’re the same. Bower didn’t draft Mikal.
If Bower picks a big, I would expect him to target someone like West as opposed to Ellenson or Armstrong. Someone that can actually pass and shoot. Think Obi over Precious (of course Obi is prob long gone by 10, but that’s the thought process I would think Bower might use).
I mentioned Stanley Johnson and Ellenson, exactly for this reason. I have the full list of Bower picks but chose not to include it as it was getting long as is. Also wanted to stick to years and conferences, rather than start to talk prototypes as that is far more subjective
Fair enough. It’s not easy to draw meaningful conclusions from a small sample. I would still have Nesmith over Vassell on the Bower Board, especially after seeing how Cam fit with Booker’s perimeter gravity and Ayton’s rim gravity. Watching guys like Duncan Robinson on DHO and movement shooting unlock so much space for Heat penetration and Bam rim runs; it’s easy to see Nesmith filling that role for Phoenix.
In the end, we are all just speculating. Lots of folks I trust don’t think Nesmith is close to what Cam was though. Vassell is just as good as a shoot with a lot more imo.
Thank you for engaging. I’ve also heard a bunch of draft folks knocking Nesmith, and I’m not sure I get it. Although it is redolent of much of the Cam criticism last year.
Specifically, I think Nesmith was both a better pure and more diverse shooter than Cam at two and a half years younger. He was better at spot-ups and catch and shoot. He was also better at pull-ups, even though he’s *only* a 79%tile shooter on pull-ups. Cam was 14/38 on pull-ups as an old senior. His release isn’t quite as pristine, but he has a similar standing reach with his + wingspan.
When you say “Vassell is just as good as a shooter” are you referring to Nesmith? Nesmith crushes Vassell on every shooting metric (including pull-ups). Nesmith beats even Cam on volume; Vassell’s volume which highly predicts NBA shooting success, was not good. AN had a 68.5% TS as a volume scorer: that’s...unusual.
I haven’t seen enough of Nesmith to comment on him specifically. Made that fairly clear in the newsletter. The reference I made was to folks I trust saying that Cam was capable of doing a lot more than Nesmith outside of shooting.
In Vassell, I trust his shot based off the film I’ve watched. And I think his upside as an all around player, especially on defensive end is tremendous.
I do plan on watching more Nesmith though. Purely because I didn’t agree with a lot of draft evaluations on cam at the time either. So I’d like to decide for myself.