Vol.3, Iss.5: Projecting Forward

The Suns made a few decisions on deadline day that impact how the team might look going forward. Let's discuss.

And We’re Back…..

I wasn’t expecting to hit your inbox again before the start of the season but after a very eventful Deadline Day, it’s time to answer the many questions that have come my way online. Before we dive right in, if you have just stumbled onto this Newsletter for the first time - please hit the button below if you like what you see. And share it with your friends. We love that too, here at The Four Point Play HQ.

More Money, More Problems…..

Project.

Chances are many of you just pronounced the above with slight discrepancies & subconsciously applied different meanings to the word. That’s the interesting yet confusing conundrum with the English language. You can take the exact same letters, arrange them in an identical way & still come up with several results. What influences the meaning to the reader, are the other words surrounding your subject. Those accompanying jumbled letters help provide the context.

NBA players are no different.

The measurements & skills remain identical for some time. Even the same intrinsic intangibles that make them special stay the same. But place them in a different environment & you may witness contrasting results. That is what makes the decisions regarding the future of basketball players, particularly younger ones, so fascinating.

Project - an individual or collaborative enterprise that is carefully planned to achieve a particular aim. 

October 18th, 2021 - The 2018 Draft Class Rookie Extension Deadline. Also known as the most recent stepping stone for the Suns Front Office to navigate, as James Jones & Co attempt to bring the first ever NBA title to Phoenix.

The definitive decisions made are now in the past. While one giant 7ft sized question threatens the present. And there goes your mind wandering already to the future. The joys of being a Suns fan, as we navigate through it all together.

The Past - Bridges & Shamet Extended

Your standard Rookie Scale contract runs for 4 years. Every year just before the season begins, teams are given a chance to extend those deals. But here’s the catch - those players still have 1 year left on their current deal. Teams have to account for what has occurred thus far but make an offer that is just as much based on future production.

Project - extend outwards beyond something else. 

This year the 2018 Draft Class had their number called. And the Suns found themselves in the unique position of having 3 players to negotiate with.

What Do We Know About The Signed Deals?

Mikal Bridges signed a 4 year extension, totalling $90,000,000. It’s a deal that takes Bridges to the end of the 2025/26 season. Giving him the current honour of being the longest contracted Phoenix Suns player. All money in the deal is completely guaranteed & there are no options.

Landry Shamet also signed a 4 year extension worth up to $42,500,000. The reason I say ‘up to’ is because as of writing this article, it has been reported that the 4th year is a Team Option. While it has been reported that way, I am led to believe the contract actually includes no guaranteed money in Year 3 on top of the TO in Year 4. With a possibility that meeting certain criteria may guarantee a portion. Perhaps the criteria information will be more public by the time you read this sentence.

When Can They Be Traded?

Players who sign certain Rookie Extensions can be traded right away. Bridges & Shamet both apply here. But they are subject to the ‘Poison Pill Provision’, which makes it more unlikely between the date they signed the extension & when it actually takes effect. The reason for this is the outgoing salary in any trade is treated as their current Rookie Scale salary for salary matching purposes to the Suns, but for the other team in the deal the incoming salary is the average annual amount of their entire existing contract. For example, if the Suns traded Shamet tomorrow they could only receive players back following normal salary matching rules for $3,768,342. That’s accepting up to 175% of that amount back. However, the team on the other side would have to treat Shamet’s deal with a value of $9,253,668 for their own matching purposes. So technically, both Bridges & Shamet can be traded. Functionally though, it’s far less likely.

What About The Rookie Option Deadline?

Not quite in the past just yet, but soon to be, is another deadline for some other current Suns Rookies. By October 31st, Phoenix have to exercise the Team Options for Cam Johnson’s 4th year & Jalen Smith’s 3rd. As disappointing as Smith has been, I’d consider both of these decisions as mere formalities shortly.

Final Thoughts:

The Bridges deal will prove to be a bargain when he is taking up less than 20% of the Salary Cap & entering his prime. Shamet has a chance to become a key contributor for the Suns & this show of confidence may just help boost those odds. My guess is when we learn the full details of the deal, public perception will be in favour of the Suns. As for either being traded even after the current restriction lifts, I wouldn’t bet on it. Bridges has proved to be a much needed key piece for this team. Providing a chop out to Chris Paul as a point of attack defender & on the verge of a breakout season offensively. While Shamet now joins Paul, Dario Saric & Cam Payne as prior favourites of Monty Williams who are welcomed long term in the desert. Is it maybe time to anoint Coach Monty as Jeff Bower’s replacement as the real secret puppeteer?

The Present - Ayton Gets Stood Up

To just about everyone’s surprise, come deadline time Deandre Ayton was the one extension eligible player left at the alter. Ayton declined to do media today & therefore the world waits with bated breath to see how the Bahamian big man will react to the rejection.

Project - display an emotion or quality in one’s behaviour. 

Some fans love Ayton’s easy-going & fun-loving nature off court. Others criticise it. Similarly, detractors would love to see more emotion on the court through some aggressive play. Supporters would point to his even keel nature being a huge advantage in the high pressure of last season’s NBA Finals run. Will we notice a change in Ayton’s behaviour after this decision?

Initial Reaction:

In isolation, I understand the hesitancy from the Suns to offer a 5 year commitment worth $172,000,000 to a player with Ayton’s current credentials. That’s what Ayton demanded, after all. But these choices aren’t made in isolation & therefore I can comfortably say I hate the decision. In my belief, Ayton has shown enough to bank on the potential while creating the added benefit of removing any distractions for the 21/22 season. Over a year ago, I challenged DA to do exactly what he went out & did in last season’s Playoffs. I wrote that if Ayton sacrificed, he would be rewarded. And I believed it. Unfortunately we were both proven wrong. Now with the redemption season upon us, I am concerned by how Ayton might play. To be clear - not how hard or with what focus but instead, what aspects of Ayton’s game will remain important to the man himself. After losing the Finals by mere small margins around the edges, I don’t have much time for a decision that potentially makes everyone’s job harder for the sake of really only saving the owners bank balance short term. These are the percentage points that can be the difference between winning & losing. We have already been provided that evidence.

But while what Ayton next does on the court will likely have the biggest impact on what happens off it, the questions are already coming for what might be to come.

Could Ayton Be Traded This Season?

In short, yes. And honestly, with this recent decision by the Suns you have to at least open yourself up to the possibility. Like all trades, there are AY-TON of possibilities. For now, please allow me to use a favourite target among some Suns fans while also harking back to a recent Newsletter Issue. Warning - it’s Math Time.

Deandre Ayton + Dario Saric + Jalen Smith = $25,600,950. Add the 25% incoming salary that is allowed under the CBA & you get $32,001,187. Who earns just below that? None other than Karl-Anthony Towns at $31,650,600. But here’s where it gets REALLY interesting. Remember when we asked What Are You Up To, Champ? & I pondered if James Jones was avoiding being hard capped & staying a purposeful amount below the Luxury Tax? Yes? Great! Well, if the Suns did a trade like the above for KAT (with other obvious additions) the difference in outgoing & incoming salary would be $6,049,650. That’s less than how far the Suns are still under the tax (approx $8,000,000) & even with some room for another Veteran Minimum signing.

How Will Restricted Free Agency Work?

But if Ayton isn’t traded & he makes it to Restricted Free Agency, us Suns fans are due for more drama. The most 29 other teams can offer Ayton will be $127,925,000 over 4 years. While the Suns could still offer the same $172,550,000 over 5 years contract they failed to offer this week. Further to that, a Suns 4 year offer is worth also slightly more than others at $133,280,000. Simply put, Phoenix still hold the upper hand. Even if I believe they incorrectly used that leverage in recent negotiations. But the one risk the Suns do run with this approach, is if Ayton signs an offer sheet with another team for a shorter period of time or with complicated clauses we don’t have to get into right now. Unfortunately, if Ayton does sign an offer sheet then the Suns can only match those terms rather than offer anything different. If Deandre plays to a Max level this season, Phoenix will want to make their offer before any team tempts the Suns big man with a deal that negatively impacts the Phoenix franchise.

What About The Qualifying Offer Or Sign & Trades?

I’ll keep this short & simple. Ayton’s QO is $16,400,000. While DA could technically choose to play just 1 more year for the Suns at that amount before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent, it is extremely unlikely. Forget about it. As for S&Ts, they are also a possibility should Ayton find another suitor & if Phoenix want to avoid losing him for nothing. Plenty of time in the future to discuss that if we need to.

The Future - Continuing The Build

With the Suns committing to several long-term financial decisions this off-season while actively avoiding another, it is hard not to look into the future. Even on the eve of a possible redemption season, the mind wanders to how the cap sheet is shaping up for seasons to come.

Project - estimate or forecast on the basis of present trends or data. 

In terms of what decisions might be impacted by the recent extensions from the Suns, both Ayton & Johnson’s futures seem to be front of mind for the majority of fans.

How Is The Cap Situation Looking For 22/23?

Outside of a surprise move this season, the Suns look like becoming tax payers for the first time in over a decade during the 22/23 season. That’s where Ayton comes in. Without him, the Suns project to have $117,246,486 of salary tied up in Devin Booker, Paul, Jae Crowder, Saric, Payne, Bridges & Shamet. Add Johnson’s option & that number is north of $123,000,000. If Ayton was to then sign a Max contract with Phoenix, the salary bill would climb to over $152,000,000. Well over the tax already & with only 9 players on the books. For Ayton to stay, it may take him accepting less or other moves being made to accomodate his new salary.

What About How This Impacts Cam Johnson In 23/24?

Let’s say Ayton does sign that Max. All of a sudden in the same off-season, Phoenix are back deciding on another new Rookie Extension. This time for Cam Johnson. With a modest prediction of $15,000,000 annually for Johnson, Phoenix are already back at that same $152,000,000 amount again. This time with just Booker, Paul, Payne, Bridges, Shamet, Ayton & Johnson signed. The only positive is the tax line will be higher by then too but you’d suspect further roster manipulation to take place.

Drawing Conclusions:

Ultimately, success is defined by reaching the ultimate. The decisions made recently by the Suns will be judged to that high standard, just as any decisions made into the future will too. In the moments of mayhem, fanatics like us will often take out our feelings on those we actively choose to support. In my book, you just have to make sure it’s directed at the deserving target.

Project - attribute or transfer an emotion or desire to another person, especially unconsciously.

Winning NBA Titles is not easy. Just ask Robert Sarver about the empty trophy cabinet sitting in his office. However, it is okay to expect those in charge to do everything within their power to deliver that elusive trophy to The Valley one day.

And so we end back where we started. It is in times like Free Agency or Trade Deadlines that we often lose sight of the people inside the uniforms. Eyes focused solely on the name on the front of the jersey, instead of the one on the back.

I’ll be rooting for Deandre Ayton to eventually get his Max contract with the Suns. Why? Because for that prospect to come true, there’s every chance it is accompanied by present and/or future team success. For now, we can only hope the decisions made in the past few days provide the right context for the players involved to show their true meaning.

---

Overtime!

As whenever I do these salary cap based Issues, I can’t cover off every possibility or scenario. If you have any specific questions or case studies you want answered, pop them in the comments & I’ll do my best to answer.

With the new NBA Season upon us & in the spirit of projecting forward, here’s my predictions for the first 14 games of the season. 10-4, not a bad start!

v DEN (W), @ LAL (L), @ POR (W), v SAC (W), v CLE (W), v NOP (W), v HOU (W), v ATL (L), @ SAC (W), v POR (W), @ MEM (L), @ HOU (W), @ MIN (W), v DAL (L).